Wall Street does Create Something

According to a recent article, Wall Street Bonuses Flood NYC’s Economy, published by Adam Goldman, Wall Street does create more than nothing. Most people have the idea that Wall Street only creates money based on lying, cheating, stealing, greed and corruption. Although this may depict a handful of individuals on the street, I personally feel that the general public is jealous of their financial status. Therefore, they agree with the depiction of Gordon Gekko and his quotes in the movie Wall Street (by the way, I love the movie).

122106_wall_street.jpg

“The richest one percent of this country owns half our country’s wealth, five trillion dollars. One third of that comes from hard work, two thirds comes from inheritance, interest on interest accumulating to widows and idiot sons and what I do, stock and real estate speculation. It’s bullshit. You got ninety percent of the American public out there with little or no net worth. I create nothing, I own.” – Gordon Gekko, from the movie Wall Street

“Wall Street creates nothing. It innovates nothing. It simply cashes in if the gamble pays off and cashes out if it fails. Wall Street is loyal to nothing except the illusion of uninterrupted profits and constant economic growth in a finite world.”
Washington Post

“Mr Temple is absolutely right in pointing out that Hedge Funds contribute nothing to the well being of the economy and most times act as destabilising agents in volatile markets.”
Article written in England

I can agree with these comments in certain situations but I find it very interesting that detailed research shows how Wall Street creates jobs. And not more jobs on Wall Street! According to Mr. Goldman and Ken Bleiwas, three jobs are created in NY City and the suburbs for every one job created on Wall Street.

As they state in their article: “The impact of such bonuses on the New York economy is profound.

Bonuses are expected to generate $1.6 billion in tax revenues for New York state and another $500 million for New York City. For every job created on Wall Street, three other jobs are created in the city and suburbs.”

“When Wall Street does well, New York City and New York state do well,” Comptroller Alan Hevesi said. “Wall Street bonuses are spent in the city and in surrounding suburbs on entertainment, real estate, automobiles, and other consumer goods, all of which generates jobs and tax revenues.”

You be the judge. Does Wall Street create nothing?

Baby Boomer Bust is BULL

This article was originally written last summer but I wanted to bring it to the top of the blog after reading Bill’s lastest post over at No DooDahs.
“Boomer Bust?” I Don’t Think So!

I couldn’t agree more and can’t wait to read his full argument!

July 14, 2006:
Falling_DollarTheorists make money selling books that sell fear while investors and entrepreneurs make money by following their ideas with money and hedging against a possible crisis. I learn from history and history shows us that these “crisis” books will always sell during tough times. Readers eat up this garbage because most people are trapped in the rat race working their asses off just trying to stay afloat. Their attitudes are typically piss-poor and they love to read about huge negative events (especially a crash that may hurt others).

Also notice how the same authors try to write books when the market starts to go back up again. For example, Howard J Ruff was writing about the crisis in 1979 through 1982 but then started to write about how to invest as a serious investor in 1987. Guess what: he was on the wrong end of the crisis in 1982 (the tail end) and the wrong end of the boom in 1987 (crash later that year). These “fools” are always late to the party and sell millions of books to the “average” person that engrosses themselves in fear!

These people, both now and then are not very accurate, they sell garbage in my opinion and I ignore it at all costs! I just hope many of you can do the same and make decisions based on what “YOU” see and not based on book sellers! Invest for now, ignore the garbage but be prepared for worst case scenarios by taking necessary steps but don’t radically change your life based upon the writings of a few authors that probably don’t invest themselves.

Books from the Past:
Crisis Investing: Opportunities and Profits in the Coming Great Depression by Douglas Casey (Hardcover – Jul 1980)

Crisis Investing for the Rest of the 90’s by Douglas Casey (Hardcover – Oct 1993) – WOW was this wrong in 1993!

What the smart money is betting on in 1985: By Doug Casey by Douglas R Casey (Unknown Binding – Jan 1, 1985)

The Coming Currency Collapse and What You Can Do About It by Jerome F. Smith (Hardcover – Sep 1980)

Profits from silver by Jerome F Smith (Unknown Binding – 1983)

How you can profit from the coming devaluation by Harry Browne (Unknown Binding – 1970)

You can profit from a monetary crisis by Harry Browne (Unknown Binding – Jan 1, 1975)

How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years – A Crash Course on Personal and Financial Survival by Howard J. Ruff (Mass Market Paperback – 1979)

How to Prosper in the Coming Bad Years by Howard J. Ruff (Mass Market Paperback – Jul 1981)

Making money: Winning the battle for middle-class financial success by Howard J Ruff (Paperback – 1986)

Howard Ruff’s crash course for the serious investor by Howard J Ruff (Unknown Binding – Jan 1, 1987)

How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years by Howard J. Ruff (Paperback – April 1984)

Books from Today:
The Coming Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit from It : Make a Fortune by Investing in Gold and Other Hard Assets by James Turk and John Rubino (Hardcover – Dec 28, 2004)

The Coming Economic Collapse : How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 a Barrel by Stephen Leeb and Glen Strathy (Hardcover – Feb 21, 2006)

Defying the Market: Profiting in the Turbulent Post-Technology Market Boom by Stephen Leeb and Donna Leeb (Hardcover – Jun 3, 1999)

Empire of Debt : The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis (Hardcover) by William Bonner, Addison Wiggin (November 11, 2005)

The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It (Paperback) by Daniel A. Arnold (November 25, 2002)

Image courtesy of Mirrorimageorigin.collegepublisher.com

Piranha

Talking Heads at it Again!

As we all know the DOW set a new record close by finishing at 11,727.34, surpassing the prior closing high of 11,722.98 set back on January 14, 2000. The index was up 0.5% or 56 points as crude oil fell to a 14-month low based on assumptions that lower energy prices may boost consumer spending and hold off an economic slowdown. The NASDAQ was up 0.3% to close at 2,243.65 as it is still miles away from all time high that was set back in 2000 at 5,132.50. The S&P 500 closed at 1,334.11, up 0.2%, as it is within a short distance of its all-time high of 1,553.11.

With all of the excitement surrounding the new closing high, I would like to focus on what the “Talking Heads” are saying. What is a talking head? Please see a post I wrote years ago titled: Ignore “Talking Heads” because they are usually wrong!

Here are some quotes from talking heads today:

  • “Now that you have a definitive new all time high, the fact that it is the Dow and the most recognized index, that is the type of thing that will shine the spotlight on the market,” said Charles Carlson, who oversees $105 million at Horizon Investment Services LLC in Hammond, Indiana, and who wrote “Winning With the Dow’s Losers,” published in 2004. “This could get people interested in stocks.”

Read that last quote! “This could get people interested in stocks”. The only people that get interested at this point in time is dumb money! When “people” such as your mother-in-law, the barber and the taxi driver start talking about the DOW and its all-time high; it’s probably time to get ready for a huge blow-out where smart money takes advantage of dumb money and laughs all the way to the bank. Be careful out there because the wheels will fall off when “people” get interested in stocks.

Another ‘talking head” on a major financial site:

  • “Investors are concluding that the economy is in for a soft landing,” said Hugh Johnson, chairman of Johnson Illington Advisors. “They expect the good news about the decline in oil prices to offset the negative impact of a deteriorating housing market.”
  • “What’s most interesting”, Davidson said, “is not that the Dow has broken through to a new record, but that it has taken the market this long to get to a point at which stocks seem to be fairly valued relative to earnings expectations.”

Who cares, analysts were saying Enron was a buy and fairly valued at $60 before its infamous decline. By the way, talking heads recommended Enron all the way to $12 per share from $60.

  • Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at AG Edwards was cautious about the importance of the Dow’s milestone. “It’s probably of more significance to the retail investment community than it is to the professionals,” he said.
  • “But I do think its a psychological plus and one that could spark some interest and maybe bring a little bit of sideline money into the market.”

From MSW Money:
Twenty-three of 30 stocks in the Dow were higher on the day along with 304 S&P 500 stocks.

  • The rally is a reflection of investor “belief in the sustainability of growth,” Maury Harris of UBS Securities told CNBC’s “Power Lunch.” While the economy may be slowing, it will be a modest pullback at worst, he said. And, added Peter Hooper of Deutsche Bank Securities, investors believe the Fed won’t be cutting interest rates but will step in to support the economy.

When I hear things like this, I start to lick my chops and get ready to short the hell out of the market. These talking heads don’t know what is going on and continue to pump a market and economy that is extremely extended and due for a pull-back. I really don’t know when that correction will start but it will and I am jumping on at the first signal. To be honest, it could take, three days, three weeks or even three months – I don’t know but when it does happen, I put my cash to use!

As many traders have noted, such as Trader Mike, the $SOX or semiconductor index is performing poorly which usually casts some foreshadowing of what’s to come. In addition to the $SOX acting poorly, small caps and other bull market leaders are not stepping to the plate to propel the indexes higher. The NH-NL ratio is weak and is not participating in this rally run and that sends the largest red flag in my opinion. Without the support of small cap growth stocks, you wouldn’t expect this rally to continue. I have been bearish on the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll for the past four weeks as the market has moved higher and remain that way.

Some sectors acting poorly on Tuesday were energy stocks, computer hardware and gold stocks. Sectors moving higher Tuesday included airlines (they typically move higher when oil stocks move lower), brokers and some medicals.

Marvel Technology (MRVL) led the semiconductor group lower as it gapped-down and closed with a 12% loss on the largest daily volume in months. The stock is back below its 50-d moving average and is well below its 200-d moving average. The proper CANSLIM short should have come when the stock failed to recover the 200-d m.a. back in mid-June. Similar to the stocks listed on last night’s MSW screen, MRVL can be a poster stock for what to look for in possible shorts.

I have included some charts of the major indexes which shows why I am looking for a pullback and why my screens are focusing on potential shorts.
Piranha

Hedge Funds – Richest of the Rich

It’s good to be back from vacation and refreshed after following the weak market over the month of May. As I was away, The New York Times was delivered to my door each morning (complimentary) and I found an interesting article. I have always been amazed by the enormous incomes that hedge fund managers produce year in and year out. I have even posted up the top 10 salaries from past years (example: Top Incomes in 2003 for Hedge Fund Managers ). If you briefly view the top 10 from 2003, you can see that George Soros was #1 with a take home pay of $750 million. Well, only two years later the top earner has doubled the total from 2003 to a whopping $1.5 billion (eclipsing last year’s top earner by $500 million). Edward Lampert was the first manager to surpass the billion dollar mark in 2004 but two men accomplished the feat last year. One of my favorite traders, Steven A. Cohen remained in the top 10 with a salary of $550 million. Mr. Cohen, along with several others on the list below has been featured in the book series titled: Market Wizards (all highly recommended). Below is the entire article from The New York Times written by Jenny Anderson (originally printed on May 26, 2006):

Enjoy, the numbers are staggering!

Atop Hedge Funds, Richest of the Rich Get Even More So
By JENNY ANDERSON

Published: May 26, 2006
*image from The New York Times website*

Talk about minting money. In 2001 and 2002, hedge fund managers had to make $30 million to gain entry to a survey of the best paid in hedge funds that is closely followed by people in the business. In 2004, the threshold had soared to $100 million.

Last year, managers had to take home — yes, take home — $130 million to make it into the ranks of the top 25. And there was a tie for 25th place, so there were actually 26 hedge fund managers who made $130 million or more.

Just when it seems as if things cannot get any better for the titans of investing, they get better — a lot better.

James Simons, a math whiz who founded Renaissance Technologies, made $1.5 billion in 2005, according to the survey by Alpha, a magazine published by Institutional Investor. That trumps the more than $1 billion that Edward S. Lampert, known for last year’s acquisition of Sears, Roebuck, took home in 2004. (Don’t fret for Mr. Lampert; he earned $425 million in 2005.) Mr. Simons’s $5.3 billion flagship Medallion fund returned 29.5 percent, net of fees.

No. 2 on Alpha’s list is T. Boone Pickens Jr., 78, the oilman who gained attention in the 1980’s going after Gulf Oil, among other companies. He earned $1.4 billion in 2005, largely from startling returns on his two energy-focused hedge funds: 650 percent on the BP Capital Commodity Fund and 89 percent on the BP Capital Energy Equity Fund.

A representative for Mr. Simons declined to comment. Calls to Mr. Pickens’s company were not returned.

The magic behind the money is the compensation structure of a hedge fund. Hedge funds, lightly regulated private investment pools for institutions and wealthy individuals, typically charge investors 2 percent of the money under management and a performance fee that generally starts at 20 percent of gains.

The stars often make a lot more than this “2 and 20” compensation setup. According to Alpha’s list, Mr. Simons charges a 5 percent management fee and takes 44 percent of gains; Steven A. Cohen, of SAC Capital Advisors, charges a management fee of 1 to 3 percent and 44 percent of gains; and Paul Tudor Jones II, whose Tudor Investment Corporation has never had a down year since its founding in 1980, charges 4 percent of assets under management and a 23 percent fee.

They may charge such amounts because they can. “In the end, what people want is the risk-adjusted performance,” said Gordon C. Haave, director of the investing and consulting group at Asset Services Company, a $4 billion institutional advisory business. “As long as the performance is up there, in the end the investors do not care about the high fees.”

If there is a downside to being so rich, it is that the money is flooding in at a time when hedge fund performance, even for some of the greats, has been less than stellar over all. Six managers made the top 25 even while posting returns in the single digits.

“You would think someone would be a little embarrassed taking all that money for humdrum returns,” said John C. Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group. “I guess people don’t get embarrassed when it comes to money.”

Many of the funds have gotten so big that the management fees alone are the source of much wealth, perhaps leaving some managers without the fire to try to outdo the broad market. Institutions like pension funds and endowments, whose money is fueling a significant part of the hedge fund boom, continue to flock to these managers for their track records and name recognition.

Bruce Kovner’s Caxton Global Offshore fund returned 8 percent last year while his Gamut Investments, an offshore fund he runs for GAM Fund Management, returned 6.4 percent. The survey said 2005 was the third year that he had posted single-digit returns. Still, Mr. Kovner took home $400 million, according to the list. He did not return calls to his office.

The average take-home pay for the 26 managers in 2005 was $363 million, a 45 percent increase over the top 25 the previous year. Median earnings surged by a third, to $205 million last year, from $153 million in 2004.

Included on the list were both familiar names and new stars. Mr. Cohen of SAC Capital, who while shunning publicity has become known as an avid art collector, landed in fourth place in 2005, taking home $550 million. For the year, his various funds were up 18 percent on average. A spokesman for Mr. Cohen declined to comment.

New to the list are two managers from Atticus Capital, a fund that was among the investor activists that opposed Deutsche Börse’s attempted takeover of the London Stock Exchange for $2.5 billion. That campaign led to the ouster last year of the Deutsche Börse chief executive. Atticus is also a major participant in the battle for Euronext, the pan-European stock and derivatives exchange, which is being courted by the New York Stock Exchange and by Deutsche Börse.

Making his debut at 14th place, Timothy Barakett made $200 million in 2005. His Atticus Global Fund was up 22 percent net of fees, while the European Fund, managed by 33-year old David Slager (No. 20 on the list with $150 million), soared 62 percent. Atticus officials did not respond to requests for comment.

A fellow investor activist, Daniel Loeb of Third Point, made $150 million in 2005. According to Alpha, only 10 percent of the firm’s $3.8 billion is dedicated to activism, an unexpectedly small slice considering his reputation as management’s worst nightmare.

A value- and event-driven manager, Mr. Loeb posted returns of 18 percent, largely from bets in energy, including a 140 percent gain on McDermott International. Mr. Loeb’s spokesman declined to comment.

Another debut on the list was by William F. Browder, founder and chief of Hermitage Capital Management and the largest foreign investor in the Russian stock market. He tied for 25th place by taking home $130 million.

Mr. Browder, 42, grandson of Earl Browder, onetime leader of the Communist Party of the United States, has been barred from returning to post-Communist Russia since November, when immigration officials revoked his visa. The fund had $4.3 billion under management and in 2005, his flagship Hermitage Fund was up 81.5 percent.

A shareholder activist, he has challenged management at Russian state giants including Gazprom and Lukoil. Mr. Browder could not be reached for comment.

Dooms-day? Is this really 1987 all over Again?

With the markets heading lower once again, I am sitting here with a big grin on my face as I start to pack for vacation. Why am I grinning? I have been scaling out of the markets over the past several weeks and have been advising all MSW members to do the same. My indicators have been turning very weak and the NH-NL ratio has been predicting this type of collapse all year long. As the markets neared multi-year highs and all-time highs, the NH-NL ratio stayed weak; a clear sign that we were watching a false move. I don’t expect to see a magazine cover similar to the Time image I uploaded any time soon but I may be wrong(from November 1987).

I highlighted some key quotes of mine on this blog from the MSW screens in May which show you how serious I thought this decline could become. It is a coincidence that I am leaving for vacation and the markets are so weak but it works perfectly for capital preservation. I am not worried about a thing because I have moved to sidelines and will enjoy time in the sun with my family as some people continue to average down and pull their hair out (trying to predict bottoms).

Now I will post up a “dooms-day” article that was featured on The Drudge Reportand has now been uploaded to many blogs and financial sites around the web. It is an interesting article from the London Times. A simple look anywhere online or in print will show you how investors are panicking. Gloomy articles are being written by the minute. Enjoy!


The Sunday Times May 21, 2006

Markets ‘are like 1987 crash’
David Smith, Economics Editor

CONDITIONS in the financial markets are eerily similar to those that precipitated the “Black Monday” stock market crash of October 1987, according to leading City analysts.
A report by Barclays Capital says the run-up to the 1987 crash was characterized by a widening US current-account deficit, weak dollar, fears of rising inflation, a fading boom in American house prices, and the appointment of a new chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.

All have been happening in recent months, with market nerves on edge last week over fears of higher inflation and a tumbling dollar, and the perception of mixed messages on interest rates from Ben Bernanke, the new Fed chairman.

“We are very uncomfortable about predicting financial crises, but we cannot help but see a certain similarity between the current economic and market conditions and the environment that led to the stock-market crash of October 1987,” said David Woo, head of global foreign-exchange strategy at Barclays Capital.

Apart from the similarities in economic conditions, during the run-up to the 1987 crash there was a sharp rise in share prices worldwide and weakness in bond markets, Woo pointed out. “Market patterns leading to the crash of 1987 resemble the markets today,” he said.

Equity markets settled on Friday after sharp mid-week falls, with all the main American stock-market measures recording small gains on the day. But nerves remain.

Gerard Lyons, head of research at Standard Chartered, said: “The volatility is explained by tighter liquidity conditions, markets pricing in more for risk and dollar vulnerability. But people forget that this is not a case of emerging-market economies being in trouble as in 1997-8. They’re in good shape.”

The vulnerability of stock markets is likely to add to the case for a prolonged pause before the Bank of England hikes interest rates, analysts believe.

While one member of its monetary policy committee (MPC) voted for a rate hike earlier this month, some recent data, notably subdued labour market conditions, suggest few signs of inflationary pressure.
Base rate is unlikely to rise until next year, according to a survey of analysts by Ideaglobal.com, a financial-research consultancy. It finds a median expectation that the rate, currently 4.5%, will rise in February next year.

Piranha