10 Steps to Profitable Trading

The secret to winning big in the market is not to be right all the time but to lose the least amount of money possible when you are wrong. As long as you win larger than you lose, you will be a profitable trader at the end of each year. Pride, ego and stubbornness prevents a trader from reaching the levels that very few can master.

To become a profitable trader, you must:

  • 1. Manage Risk: Learn to trade a manageable portion of you portfolio (I recommend to risk less than 2% of you overall portfolio equity on each trade). Always establish a risk/reward ratio before making a trade. Without the ratio, how do you know your risk?
  • 2. Understand Position Sizing: All traders must learn to know “how much” to trade on each position. Do not overtrade or you will runt he risk of ruin. Position sizing is rule number one of managing risk.
  • 3. Cut Losses: Do not allow losses to run wild. You must learn to cut losses and understand that losses are a part of the game, a large part of the game. Check you ego of winning at the door. We are here to make money, not go undefeated. Play sports if you want to keep score with a record rather than your bankroll.
  • 4. Learn when to Sell: You must learn when to sell. Selling is more important than buying as it ties directly to risk management. Use stops if you haven’t yet developed the discipline to get out at your predetermined stop or profit goal.
  • 5. Average up in Price: I will never hesitate to add shares in a stock that is moving higher (see Mastercard) but I always avoid averaging down. Remember, cut losses and never throw good money after bad because we know that’s a quick way to the poorhouse.
  • 6. Have Patience: It takes years to master trading as an advanced skill; even then, you are never done learning or adapting.
  • 7. Buy 52-week Highs, not 52-Week Lows: Don’t be afraid to buy stocks making new highs. The garbage sits at the bottom of the market along with poor earnings, weakness and further downward pressure. Buy strength and the momentum moving higher. Stocks are typically priced at the levels they trade for good reason. This applies to most premium items in life.
  • 8. Ignore the Talking Heads: Do not listen to the stories, gossip and rumors flying around on network television, stock forums or the major financial newspapers. It a surefire route to bad information and clueless advice. Do your own research; you’ll come out much further ahead. This applies to crappy blogs and internet sites as well.
  • 9. Understand Technical Analysis: Fundamental analysis is a solid part of my trading system but technical analysis brings in the dough. You must learn, understand and use technical analysis on a daily basis. Fundamental analysis tells me what and technical analysis tells me when, where and how.
  • 10. Control Emotions: Enough said – You must control your emotions or the game is over! Understand you!

Money Makers: IPI and TITN

I have been away for the past few days but IPI and TITN continue to make new highs. The two stocks are up 49% and 69% respectively. I do need to catch up on responding to comments since last Thursday. Follow the trend – simple concept.

(IPI) Intrepid Potash, Inc.

(TITN) Titan Machinery Inc.

China Architectural Engineering (CAEI)

Stock of the Day
China Architectural Engineering, Inc.
Wednesday’s Closing Price: CAEI – $10.75

Sector: Industrial Goods
Industry: General Contractor
52-week Price: $4.75 – $27.25

June 6, 2008 Business Wire:

“China Architectural Engineering, Inc. (CAE) (AMEX:RCH), a leader in the design, engineering, fabrication and installation of high-end building envelope systems, today announced that the Company will ring the opening bell at the NASDAQ MarketSite in New York City’s Times Square on Thursday, June 12, 2008 at 9:30 a.m. EDT. The Company will commence trading on the NASDAQ Global Select Market under the ticker symbol “CAEI” on June 10, 2008.”

Although the company has “China” in its name, 45% of its revenue comes from Australia, Dubai, Qatar, the U.S. and Europe. Business week noted that growth should last well beyond the Olympic games this year because of robust orders in foreign markets.

The company’s order backlog is said to be at $100 million or 1/5th of its current market cap, a nice card to have up its sleeve in today’s world market.

The gap-up on the chart in May on huge volume concerns me when attempting to establish a solid risk/ reward trade strategy. I would like to see the gap fill prior to entering a position but I do see support along the 50-d m.a. or even $8 per share. I am going to set-up the “ideal trade” using the current moving average so we can cover a potential pull-back to the gap-up area noted on the charts.

Potential Trade Set-up:
Entry: $7.00
Risk is set at 1.0% of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 12% or $6.16 ($6.00 area)
Number of Shares: 1,190
Position Size is $8,334
Risk is $0.84
Target is $13 for a 7-to-1 risk/reward ratio

Key Fundamental Numbers:
Market Cap.: $547M
Outstanding Shares: 51.1M
EPS Growth (MRQ): 178%
EPS Growth (TTM): 135%
Revenue Growth (MRQ): 76%
Revenue Growth (TTM): 50%

Earnings per Share (EPS):
$0.50 Next year, +39%; High estimate $0.64, +77%
$0.36 current year, +71%
$0.21 last year, +50%
$0.14 previous year

Watchlist and Stock Portfolio Update

Let’s start with the hottest stocks that have been on my watchlist over recent weeks:
CLR – Continental Resources Inc.,

  • Young Stocks Moving on Volume

    “CLR – Continental Resources, $46.54, +43%”

  • My latest Stock Watchlist

    “CLR – 38.38, yes, this stock is extended but I like it near $30 or the next base”

  • Highest Rated IPO’s

    “CLR – Continental Resources Inc., $26.57
    This is the first appearance of the stock on this blog as it has had a nice run from $15 to $28 in four months. The stock is extended but trending higher. An ideal entry is above the 50-d m.a. Set up a favorable risk-to-reward trade before entering”

SD – Sandridge Energy Inc.

  • Top Rated Stocks

    “SD – 55.00, Sandridge Energy Inc., made another new all-time high this week and it continues to trend higher on increasing volume. A couple late day reversals to end the week sent up a red flag (minor at this point in time).”

  • Young Stocks Moving on Volume

    “SD – Sandridge Energy Inc., $47.01, +30%”

  • My latest Stock Watchlist

    “SD – 44.28, made almost every screen I ran this week (buy near $40)”

GTLS – Chart Industries Inc.

  • Top Rated Stocks

    “GTLS – 41.89, Chart Industries Inc. is trading near new all-time high territory as the trend is higher. A move above $43 will trigger a triple top breakout on the point and figure chart (a positive sign if it comes on heavy volume and without a reversal).”

  • Young Stocks Moving on Volume

    “GTLS – Chart Industries, $41.05, +45%”

  • My latest Stock Watchlist

    GTLS – 35.48, poor ending to the week but a buy near the 200-d m.a. is fine

  • Chris Perruna Stocks in Review 2007

    “Listed are the thirty two covered stocks in alphabetical order:
    BIDU, BKC, BX, CSH, DVR, EDU, FCSX, FSLR, GRMN, GROW, GTLS, HMIN, HWCC, ICON, JASO, JSDA, LDK, LOOP, MA, MFB, MPW, MR, OMTR, PRXI, PTR, ROCM, SHLD, SLW, SMOD, SNCR, SSRX, VMW”

  • Market Leaders!

    “(GTLS) Chart Industries Inc. – Fresh IPO Ideas $32.45”

  • Leading CP Stocks

    7. GTLS: 37%, $23.05 to $31.54, 6/13/07

  • Make Millions Trading IPOs

    “GTLS has gained almost 35% while institutional sponsorship has increased 55%. The most attractive number of the group is the jump in shares held for GTLS which increased by 102%. Institutions bought 16 million more shares than they were selling for an 8-to-1 ratio. The value of shares bought closed just shy of $500 million while the value of shares sold was only $65 million. The stock looks good long term.”

  • Chart Industries (GTLS)

    “GTLS was Featured in these posts in June 2007:
    6/13/07: Fresh IPO Ideas, GTLS – Chart Industries Inc. – $23.05
    6/20/07: Young Guns Taking Off, GTLS – $24.73″

TITN – Titan Machinery Inc.

IPI – Intrepid Potash, Inc.

  • Intrepid Potash, Inc (IPI)

    “Can Intrepid Potash (IPI) follow in the footsteps of Potash Corp. Saskatch, Inc. (POT)? I will not hesitate to jump on a trend if IPI starts to run higher because crowds are persistent and I don’t like to fight them.”

Current Portfolio Holdings – Growth:

[Read more…]

VisionChina Media, Inc. (VISN)

Stock of the Day
VisionChina Media, Inc.

Tuesday’s Closing Price: VISN – $18.84

Sector: Services
Industry: Advertising
52-week Price: $5.27 – $23.00

The stock is starting to pull back to the 50-day moving average which will offer us a solid entry opportunity with an excellent risk-to-reward ratio. If my swing target method can offer any accuracy whatsoever, we could be looking at a 10-to-1 risk-to-reward trade. A buy in the $16 to $17 area could also provide us a 5-to-1 risk-to-reward ratio assuming it can get back to $23 without violating the stop.

Not bad if you ask me. I will be taking on the trade if it drops below $17 and holds support at the 50-d moving average. Maybe it will work, maybe it will flop. As I say every time (like a broken record): take the trade and follow the rules. That’s all we can ask!

Take a look at some previous posts I have made with VISN highlighted:

Hot Momentum Stocks

A couple more HOT momentum stocks:
VISN – 22.53, VisionChina Media Inc. has also been tearing up my nightly screens but it slipped past any and all ideal entry points for me as a trend trader. It is now in the hands of the day traders with a year-to-date gain of 146%, a 148% gain over the past three months and a 42% gain over the past month.

Top Rated Stocks

Other High Rated Stocks in my System:
VISN – 18.88, VisionChina Media, Inc.

Potential Trade Set-up:
Entry: $16.00
Risk is set at 1.0% of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 10% or $14.72
Number of Shares: 781
Position Size is $12,500
Risk is $1.28
Target is $30 for a 10-to-1 risk/reward ratio.
A move back to $23 with a buy at $16 would be a 5-to-1 risk/reward trade.

Institutional Analysis:
Held By Institutions: 43.21%
Total Held by Institutions: 48
Money Market: 29
Mutual Fund: 17
Other: 2

New Positions: 27
Positions Sold: 8
Shares Held: 36.97M
Shares Held Previous Period: 32.43M

Shares Bought: 6.82M
Shares Sold: 2.32M
Value of Shares Bought: $133.2M
Value of Shares Sold: $45.19M

[Read more…]