Visa Cup with Handle

Visa (V), $65.75: As I mentioned on Twitter last week, the stock is building a cup with handle pattern. A down-sloping handle is currently forming with a pivot point breakout at $68.55. I will be looking to add shares on a breakout. FYI: I currently own shares from 2008.

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See the post Visa, from December 17, 2008 for further details:

Why do I like VISA’s potential?

  • $1o Billion would represent the second largest IPO ever!
  • Revenues are expected to grow steadily as consumers continue to use their cards
  • VISA processed 44 billion transactions totaling $3.2 trillion in 2006 (Mastercard processed 23.4 billion transactions totaling $1.9 trillion)
  • VISA has made $771 million on $3.7 billion in revenue during the first nine months of 2007
  • VISA makes their money from the fees it charges to card users and merchants using its network

BEST OF ALL:

  • Because it acts as an intermediary, Visa doesn’t sustain losses when consumers don’t repay the debts run up on credit cards bearing its brand. Those liabilities instead fall to the banks that issue the cards and set the terms of repayment
  • Most of Visa’s major stockholders are banks. They include: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which owns 23.3 percent of the company’s Class B Stock; Bank of America Corp., 11.5 percent; National City Corp., 8 percent; Citigroup Inc., 5.5 percent; U.S. Bancorp, 5.1 percent; and Wells Fargo & Co., 5.1 percent.

Let’s see what happens. The gov’t here in the US scares me these days when it comes to credit cards so pay attention to what they are doing. I wish they would just butt-out and go back to doing what they are meant to do.

Hot Stock Charts

Well, this is about as hot as it gets these days! It’s been difficult to find solid looking stock charts that are trending higher over the past three to six months but I continue to research. The overall market is still very weak so the lack of individual leaders is understandable. It’s not smart to buy against the grain of the market; swimming against the current is just plain stupid if you ask me. However, my attempt today is to post up a few positive looking charts that are showing up on my screens as potential leaders if and when a small rally occurs. Several of these stocks have crossed my screens since late 2008 and have been highlighted on the blog but LOPE is new one to the bunch.

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Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE) has a great looking up-trending chart since the day of its IPO and started to show up on my daily screens in late December (the most successful IPO in a long time – out of the box). This is definitely a stock that I would purchase if the market was showing strength. For now, I will stay on the sidelines until I can see some form of a rally starting to take place.

The other stocks listed below are also displaying nice technical characteristics in this murky environment which leads me to believe that they have potential to become market leaders in a rally. APEI is closely related to LOPE as these stocks typically do well when the market is in a recession. GXDX and ENSG are related to the healthcare and/or science industry which seems to do well when the economy has turned sour as well. Stocks such as APOL, COCO and CECO were superstars after 9-11 in the months leading up to the rally of 2003. Medical related stocks were also topping my charts in late 2002 and early 2003. Times seem to be repeating so we’ll have to wait for a market signal before jumping into any of these candidates.

In any evert, keep them on your watchlist.

  • APEI – American Public Education, Inc.
  • GXDX – Genoptix, Inc.
  • ENSG – The Ensign Group, Inc.

Several of these stocks have been highlighted in blog posts dating back to November – be patient! We’ll continue to sit on them until the time is right.

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Visa (V)

Visa
It’s Everywhere You Want To Be

Visa. Love every day. (Europe)
Visa. All it takes (Asia-Pacific campaign)
Visa. All you need. (Canada)
Wherever it takes you, the future takes Visa (Europe)

Visa is the only growth stock that I decided to keep in my portfolio over the past several months. Countless people wrote to me asking “why” I was still holding the stock after I mentioned it in False Markets in October, even though it had violated the 50-d moving average and was trending down. I didn’t have a technical answer and I honestly wasn’t following any rules. I fell victim to a greater power that told me to hold, regardless of everything else. Technically speaking, it was and still is the wrong thing to do and goes against all sell rules on this blog.

My reasons were more fundamental than technical, especially due to what was happening on the street. I explained my reasons in both of these posts:

Why do I like VISA’s potential?

  • $1o Billion would represent the second largest IPO ever!
  • Revenues are expected to grow steadily as consumers continue to use their cards
  • VISA processed 44 billion transactions totaling $3.2 trillion in 2006 (Mastercard processed 23.4 billion transactions totaling $1.9 trillion)
  • VISA has made $771 million on $3.7 billion in revenue during the first nine months of 2007
  • VISA makes their money from the fees it charges to card users and merchants using its network

BEST OF ALL:

  • Because it acts as an intermediary, Visa doesn’t sustain losses when consumers don’t repay the debts run up on credit cards bearing its brand. Those liabilities instead fall to the banks that issue the cards and set the terms of repayment
  • Most of Visa’s major stockholders are banks. They include: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which owns 23.3 percent of the company’s Class B Stock; Bank of America Corp., 11.5 percent; National City Corp., 8 percent; Citigroup Inc., 5.5 percent; U.S. Bancorp, 5.1 percent; and Wells Fargo & Co., 5.1 percent.

Now, Visa is back above the 50-d m.a. but something is still wrong, volume is lacking on the upside. I want to see a surge in volume and I also want to see the govenment to butt-out. Banks may fail but Visa is not the one on the hook. I could be playing this all wrong and as I have already said, I am not playing by the rules but I see Visa coming out on top after the skies clear. I am still long Visa.

Who knows, maybe it’s another lesson in a long line of lessons I thought I had already learned.

“A”+ Stocks

Each of the stocks highlighted today have a ticker symbol and company name that begin with an “A”. No, I am not trying to toss a gimmick into my research; rather, I noticed that some of the best looking stocks showing up on my screens happen to start with an “A” (so I decided to have a little fun with the title).

AFAM – $45.10, Almost Family
The stock has a top relative strength rating and has been making new highs while the majority of all stocks collapsed over the past two months. The next test will be a new 52-week high on above average volume (further follow-through).

AVAV – $34.28, AeroVironment Inc.
The trending stock is about to challenge a new all-time high on above average volume. The ideal buy is closer to the 200-d m.a,, a place I first highlighted the young IPO as a “stock of interest” last June.

AIPC – $23.80, American Italian Pasta Co.
I highlighted the company last week in Strong Stock Charts at $15.95 per share, a 49% gain in one week.

APEI – $40.00, American Public Education
The stock displayed huge negative volume last week (on the weekly chart) but a closer look shows that the majority of this volume is coming while the buyers and sellers battle along the 200-d m.a. This stock first caught my eye last month in a post titled Three Stocks to Watch

AWK – $20.41, American Water Works Co., Inc.
The stock is trending higher on slightly larger volume and has held up well considering the carnage across the market. I prefer to see less daily volatility before it is to become a buy candidate on my watch list.

ATHN – $33.40, Athenahealth Inc.
The stock recovered the 200-d moving average for the first time in five months and is starting to gain momentum on higher volume.

Institutions Accumulating Shares

Of the stocks listed Monday (Strong Stock Charts), The Ensign Group (ENSG) and TeleCommunication Systems (TSYS) have the strongest increases in institutional sponsorship from last reporting period to the most recent reporting period.

ENSG has witnessed a 26% surge in shares being held this period versus last period and a 303% increase in the value of shares bought versus the value of shares sold. TSYS shows a 24% surge in shares being held this period versus last period and an 81% increase in the value of shares bought versus the value of shares sold.

I know these aren’t the most exciting stocks when researching net income, revenues and cash flow but technically speaking, they have promise. Concentrate on the “up-days” versus “down-days” on the daily charts (up volume versus down volume) and take a look at the institutional numbers in greater detail:

ENSG – The Ensign Group, Inc.
Institutional Analysis:
Total Held by Institutions: 119
Money Market: 51
Mutual Fund: 64
Other: 4

New Positions: 39
Positions Sold: 4
Shares Held: 6.19M
Shares Held Previous Period: 4.91M +26%

Shares Bought: 1.69M
Shares Sold: 0.4M
Value of Shares Bought: $24.4M +303%
Value of Shares Sold: $6.1M

TSYS – TeleCommunication Systems, Inc.
Institutional Analysis:
Total Held by Institutions: 203
Money Market: 107
Mutual Fund: 91
Other: 5

New Positions: 107
Positions Sold: 18
Shares Held: 30.5M
Shares Held Previous Period: 24.7M +24%

Shares Bought: 13.0M
Shares Sold: 7.2M
Value of Shares Bought: $100.4M +81%
Value of Shares Sold: $55.4M