Stocks — Page 6

Sour Apple?

April 11, 2011 by Chris Leave a Comment

Apple $AAPL is up more than 4,300% since March 2003, the beginning of the bull market following the stock market bubble burst (post 9-11). The stock is up slightly more than 1,200% since I started covering it online (my blogger blog which pre-dates the blog you are reading).

I have owned APPL on multiple occasions over the past 6 years but I wish I could sit here and write to you that I was a holder the entire time (my gains are just a small slice of the longer term buy and hold pie) . I wasn’t a 1,200%+ gainer but I was in and out while taking profits on a yearly basis back in the mid to late 2000’s. Below is an example of yearly posts I made about Apple or as I called it “Green Apples” due to the fact that it was a cash register stock.

So, with all that praise and the massive gains, am I really turning bearish on the stock? Is Apple starting to turn sour? Well, not so fast but some minor red flags are starting to show up. Take a look at the charts below which highlight the lower highs and lower lows.

January 13, 2005: Green “APPLE”s

“Apple (AAPL) first showed up on my weekly screens on 10/24/04 at $47.41. Since this time, Apple has made the daily and weekly screens numerous times.”

January 17, 2006: All-Star Stock – Digesting Apple

“Apple has been on my screens for 15 months and has been in my portfolio on two separate occasions over those 15 months.”

January 10, 2007: Apple Inc. is Still Green

“What can I say; the apples keep getting greener!”

November 29, 2007: An iPod touch from Apple (AAPL)

“A new high and a move above $200 per share will be very bullish and a signal that this stock may have another run regardless of what the major indices do.”

Apple is still trading above the 200-d moving average and has not violated any long term trendlines so please do not short at this time. You may cash in shares and start to trim back your position by selling but I don’t advise going short just yet.

The ideal position to sell short is after a move below the 200-d ma when the stock tries to break back above but fails – that’s my sweet spot.

Goldman Sachs set a price target of $430 but I don’t listen to these “talking heads”. Another interesting fact: “Nasdaq OMX plans to announce a rare rebalancing of its Nasdaq-100 index, which will reduce the big weighting of Apple, which currently makes up more than 20% of the index.” – WSJ

As of today, April 11, 2011, I suggest cashing in some shares. A further drop and I suggest selling more shares. I wouldn’t even consider the word “short” until the stocks closes below the 200-d ma (trend trade of course – not day trading).

Let’s see if this decade long “Green Apple” turns into a “Sour Apple”.

Filed Under: Selling, Stocks

Future Stars: The IPO Holiday Gift List for 2011

December 13, 2010 by Chris 2 Comments

The past year has been very kind to IPO’s, the young growth stocks that will typically lead the market for years to come. With the NASDAQ up more than 90% since the March 2009 low, many have predicted time after time that it is far too extended to move higher. I have been one of those people, one that has been consistently watching for the possible Dow Theory Reversal (1-2-3 Setup). It hasn’t happened to date and the latest attempt to stall at resistance has actually propelled the tech laden index to move to new highs. The trend in higher until the charts tell us otherwise and always remember what Livermore said:

“Just because a stock is selling at a high price does not mean it won’t go higher” – this applies to markets as well.

Whatever the market will do in 2011, I decided it was prudent to point out a number of strong growth stocks, young companies that have debuted within the past year (many within the past six months). This is NOT a buy list but it is definitely a watch-list for anyone that searches to buy young, innovative companies that are growing both earnings and sales. Several, if not many, of the stocks listed below will lead the market from time to time over the next few years, A couple of them may even become household names, similar to the GOOG, BIDU and AAPL’s of the past.

As it stands right now, Sunday (night), December 12, 2010, the major market indexes are all trending higher in the short, intermediate and long term phases. Until that changes, grab shares at ideal low risk entry points. Enjoy the possible future leaders.

Future Stars: Young Growth Stocks to Watch in 2011 and beyond:
*All charts are listed below*

HSFT – 27.46, only five months young, HiSoft Technology has currently pulled back to the 50-d moving average line, providing some support for a new entry or an opportunity to add shares.
MOTR – 23.55, after a three-fold run from it’s IPO price, Motricity is consolidating back to its 50-d moving average for an opportunity to add shares or enter for the first time
RP – 28.83, RealPage is forming a short term base that resembles a subtle cup with support above the 50-d moving average. A breakout to new highs will continue the up-trend.
QLIK – 23.40, Qlik Technologies is has been trading mostly sideways over the past three months after nearly tripling from it’s IPO launch. A move to new highs would be positive for grabbing shares.
MCP – 31.28, Molycorp is trying to maintain support at the 50-d m.a. after running from $14 to a high above $40 per share. The current consolidation is ideal to shake out weak holders and allow new supporters to jump on board.
TSLA – 31.52, Tesla Motors has been all the rage in the automotive world over the past several months, partly due to it’s stock run from $17 to more than $36 in a few short months. A bit extended here but further consolidation to the 50-d m.a. will offer new opportunities to grab shares.
KH – 20.48, some of my longer standing readers know I have had a long love affair with Chinese IPO stocks dating back to 2007 (BIDU, EDU, MR). China Kanghui looks like another solid young growth stock – always grab shares at or near a support level like a major moving average. Note this: other young Chinese stocks are starting to show sings of a breakdown so be careful.
VRA – 36.41, Vera Bradley makes my list because I know and understand this company, one of her bags was a recent gift to my wife. If VRA can be anything like Coach (COH), I’d love to jump on the ride now, nice and early. We can all dream for a ride like COH, extending back much of the past decade.

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Filed Under: IPO, Stocks, Technical Analysis

Twitter Stock Pick Results 2009

January 2, 2010 by Chris 10 Comments

chrisperruna twitter stock selections 2009:

Visa (V) turned out to be the stock I tweeted about the most starting on March 31, 2009 (my first day of twitter) at $55.60. I mentioned that “the pivot point is $61.50…then look for $60-$100 move” on April 26 2009. Well, the stock closed the year just shy of $90 and is well on it’s way to a $60-$100 run for a near 60% gain. Disclosure: I personally owned more shares of Visa in 2009 than any other stock listed below (my position is currently 100% closed).

The top gaining stock of the year was MELI, featured on May 12, 2009 at $25.60; it closed the year at $51.87 for a 103% gain.

Here is a re-cap of all the stocks that I featured on twitter in 2009:
Total Stock Selections : 63
Total Winners : 50
Win % : 79%
Total Losers : 13
Loss % : 21%

Total Average Gain : 24%
Average Gains (winners) : 36%
Average Loss (losers) : (15%)

**Keep in mind, these stats are based on pure buy and hold (no trading rules calculated in)**

A full spreadsheet of my picks can be found below.

Filed Under: Stocks, Twitter Updates

Home Builders Update

July 25, 2009 by Chris 2 Comments

The builder’s index was up more than 10% this week (July 20-24, 2009), one of the leading groups in the market. The industry is still badly beaten and I do not own shares in any of the companies listed and I don’t plan to buy any time soon. Like I said two years ago in the blog post The Best Home Builder Stock

“The bottom may be near but the upswing could take years if you go back and research history. Badly beaten down industries can take anywhere from two to five years to rebound and start trading higher.”

Give it time, past industries can and usually do take years to recover. The one “prediction” I did make has held true, NVR continues to be the group’s leader. Since my blog post on 8/24/07, NVR is the ONLY stock showing a gain with Hovnanian still down more than 75%. Toll Brothers is a distant second with a 10.77% loss.

072509_nvr_monthly_01

(NVR) NVR Inc.: + 7.74%
(TOL) Toll Brothers Inc.: -10.77%
(MDC) MDC Holdings Inc.: -19.99%
(DHI) DR Horton Inc.: -22.76%
(RYL) Ryland Group Inc.: -30.15%
(PHM) Pulte Homes Inc.: -40.29%
(KBH) KB Home: -43.33%
(LEN) Lennar Corp.: -58.49%
(CTX) Centex Corporation: -67.11%
(BZH) Beazer Homes USA Inc.: -75.27%
(HOV) Hovnanian Enterprises Inc.: -75.99%

I guess it helped to work in this industry during the boom for approximately five years but I am sill surprised that some of the big guys haven’t merged or taken over their competitors.

Other than Housing, Biotech and Cyclicals also lead the market this past week (+26% & +10% respectively), these are not the groups of choice for leaders (in my opinion).

072509_nvr_monthly_02

Here’s the original post from August 24, 2007:

The analysis below will show you why I select this stock as the best bet when the builders eventually hit a bottom and start moving higher.

Nathan Rothschild, founder of one of Europe’s most-powerful economic dynasties, uttered one of the most frequently quoted maxims on investment timing in the early 19th Century when he said, “The best time to buy is when blood is running in the streets.”

Now, blood is running in the streets for this industry and the homebuilders are getting their rear-ends kicked by Wall Street, the media and anyone else that will jump on the bandwagon.

So, when will the bottom arrive? Who the hell knows? And if someone tells you they know, just walk away because they are fooling themselves and anyone who listens.

The bottom may be near but the upswing could take years if you go back and research history. Badly beaten down industries can take anywhere from two to five years to rebound and start trading higher.

With that said, I would like to tell you why I feel that NVR Homes (NVR) is the best bet when the bottom does arrive and we start to see some life in this area.

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Filed Under: Stocks, Uncategorized

My Twitter Positions are Up Big

June 8, 2009 by Chris 7 Comments

I have been using Twitter and StockTwits for approximately two months and have highlighted 18 different stocks. Of the 18 stocks, 15 are currently showing a gain and 3 are showing a loss for an average gain of 20% per position. I only analyze stocks that I am about to buy/sell or would possibly buy/sell. I don’t talk about any old stock for the sake of posting tweets and wasting people’s time.

The average gain of the stocks showing a profit is 26%.
The average loss of the stocks showing a loss is 11% (-5%, -8% and -21%).

The top performing position is DXO, currently up 65% with a peak gain above 70%. Following DXO is EJ at 56%, STAR at 50%, RVBD at 40%, FRPT at 32%, ARST at 26% and V & VMW tied at 25%.

Visa (V) has appeared the most with a total of eight mentions (I may be biased since it’s my largest personal holding). DXO has also been an active play of mine since 2008 so it has been the second most popular ticker in my tweets, appearing five times over the past two months (DXO first appeared on this blog last November as a speculative oil play).

I would like to emphasize that the stock down 21% (APEI) would have been cut for a smaller loss using simple money management tools but for purposes of this update, we’ll assume everything is still being held.

Below is the list of stocks highlighted on my Twitter account, listed in date order (starting on March 31, 2009):