The Big Decline

I am a positive person by nature and I prefer to buy stocks going up but I am starting to see several leading stocks struggle to hold new highs or fail to challenge recent highs. These patterns are familiar and they are suggesting that the recent bounce is the final stage before a possible market decline. A perfect example can be the charts posted of DRYS yesterday.

Now, this big decline could take years to materialize so I don’t want to jump the gun and start yelling sell or short sell everything in sight. I trade to catch the mid to long term trends so time is on our side to determine what is happening.

  • I don’t need to call the tops and bottoms of moves
  • I just need to be able to identify the trend (if one exists) and then trade accordingly.
  • It’s a fairly easy method of investing and doesn’t require watching the market every hour of every day.
  • Trending markets are not very common to begin with but certain sectors, industries or markets are always forming some type of trend.

I will look to post up examples from former declining markets and will highlight what the charts looked like before those big declines.

Now, take a look at the charts of First Solar Inc. (FSLR). The market leader recently recorded new highs after the first correction since its IPO but it is now starting to churn. We have witnessed three consecutive weeks of churning action as the stock is not moving higher on above average volume.

I do admit that the overall trend is still higher but the red flags are starting to appear (with this stock and others).

[Read more…]

Cramer YELLED Buy, I wrote Sell

Jim Cramer was yelling about buying overvalued stocks on October 31, 2007 while I was continuously writing about selling, distribution days and taking profits. He also predicted that the banking stocks would be the top performers in 2007 – go figure (at least he paid his $50k bet for losing that prediction). YES, I did upload daily screens and stocks with the strongest relative strength ratings so I am not the superhero of calling this first bear market push but I feel very good about what I wrote (especially since the number of readers continues to increase – that says it all).

012308_cramer_buy.png

Looking back, I offered at least a dozen high quality, highly detailed articles about some type of selling, profit taking or market distribution days. Shame on anyone (including me) that ignored the signals as they slapped us in the face, week after week!

Take a look at some of the highlighted articles I wrote as the market was topping. I think this list contains some of the best work I have ever done on this blog or my former equity research website. Finding growth stocks and presenting them during an up-trend is the easy part. Selling and profit taking is the hard part; let me correct myself – selling is the hardest aspect to grasp when trading (in my opinion of course).

A Review of Articles Talking about Selling, Profit Taking and Market Distribution:

  • 10/03/07: Is Shanghai a Nasdaq Déjà vu

    Well, the current two year rise of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index looks remarkably similar to the rise of the NASDAQ of the late 1990’s and the charts below explain better than I can!

  • 10/04/07: A Technique for Profit Taking

    What do you do in a market like today when you have profits in multiple positions but you don’t want to give it all back? You want to continue to ride the winners but at the same time, you want to maintain the unrealized gains in your account. HOW?

  • 10/12/07: Distribution Day

    This was the largest showing of volume in two months and is not healthy because it was pure distribution. It was only the second distribution day over the past month so we can’t call this a bear run but please be on the lookout for a possible correction of 5%-10%. Technology stocks led the decline as BIDU gave back 10% of its amazing run.

  • 10/15/07: How to Make Money Selling Short
  • 10/17/07: Inverse ETFs

    Have you ever wanted to short the market because you knew it was going down but your were too overwhelmed, nervous or even scared because you were unsure of how to do it. Well, Inverse ETFs may be your thing.

    These inverse ETF’s closed Wednesday with gains of 13.42%, 15.43%, 22.31% and 18.76% since I wrote about them.

  • 10/18/07:The Real PTR Climax Run?

    I was early in September by trying to locate a climax run in PTR in this post:
    Petrochina (PTR) Climax Top? However, the HUGE volume on the latest push to new highs clearly indicates something is going on.

  • 10/20/07: Second Major Distribution Day

    Technically speaking, we now have 4 distribution days for the NASDAQ and 3 for the DOW over the past month. It’s now time to start focusing big-time on the market leaders to see where they are going to take this market. If they start to roll over, you better be quick to take profits and even quicker to take losses.

  • 11/01/07: CROX getting Swallowed

    I wrote a post titled Will CROX get Eaten? on September 20, 2007 and strongly noted the declining institutional support (see numbers below). Someone was jumping out of the stock and we now know why!

  • 11/08/07: Market Corrections, Bears and the Big Picture

    Keep in mind that nearly 75% of all stocks follow the general market trend. Your cash doesn’t need to be committed to the market at all times. This philosophy is suited to making the most money in bull markets or markets trending higher.

  • 12/11/07: When to Sell

    Why do so few books exist on the subject of “How to Sell”? Selling techniques are far more complicated than buying techniques and subject to considerably more emotional pressure, than those of buying.

012308_cramer_top.png

I promise that I will get back to analysis and uploading charts by next week the latest. That’s what I love doing most anyway and it seems to be the biggest draw in traffic.

Setups for Selling Stocks Short

I wrote an article on October 15, 2007 titled How to Make Money Selling Short, precisely when the general market indexes were topping. I am not going to take full credit but subconsciously my charts were giving me signals that the market was showing the major red flags and signals of what we are seeing today. This is a direct quote from that blog post from three months ago:

I have (privately) screened several potential shorts over the past couple of months but this market is not ready to roll over just yet. I was early with my shorting analysis in 2006 so I do not want to make the same mistake in 2007. However, more and more stocks seem to be building bases like the ones from the bubble burst in late 1999 and early 2000 (examples in the charts provided).

When I short stocks, I look for longer term trends, not short term swing trades (rarely ever day trades). The shorts I want look like the charts in this post (they take months or even years to complete). I want the high flyers that will be crushed over the next several months. Just as I like riding trends higher, I like riding trends lower over the intermediate to long term (4-12 months). I am trend trader at heart and it is what I do best.

We will have bounces to the upside over the next few months and the Fed will try to stop the bleeding but the stocks that are due for crushing blows will be dealt those blows eventually and we all can profit from them. Stocks may move 20%-50% (in both directions) at times so be careful. I will spend the remainder of the week posting up charts that look ready to become long term losers. Charts similar to the examples below. Give the charts time to form, be patient because many of these will look to move higher at times (as soon as this week and next) prior to their inevitable fall.

Complete Blog Post Repeated from October 15, 2007:
The title of the post is borrowed from the book “How to make Money Selling Stocks Short” by William J. O’Neil. It’s an ideal book for investors that focus on trading longer term trends and don’t necessarily do this for a profession (i.e.: day traders).

The book contains some excellent strategies for finding prime shorting candidates or stocks that are about to enter a declining stage that may offer excellent risk/reward setups for buying put options.

(CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGES)
101507_csco_short_sm.png

I consider several of the techniques in the book to be reverse CANSLIM? Study the charts from the past that have setup ideal shorts and then screen for those same characteristics in stocks trading today. Many of the ideal shorts from past market declines have held the reverse characteristics of an ideal CANSLIM stock (that you would want to buy).

Many traders believe that the most obvious area to place a short would be near the peak of stock’s trading range but studies have found this to be untrue.

101507_jdsu_short_sm.png

Characteristics of Longer Term Trend Shorts

  • Most ideal longer term “trend” shorts take four to twelve months after the peak price to setup on the weekly chart with the majority of these shorts triggering between six to nine months.
  • Look for stocks that had prior up-trends and support levels that can now act as downward resistance or entry areas.
  • Once a stock tops and starts to consolidate, you want it to slice through the 50-d moving average and then the 200-d moving average.
  • A crossover between the 50-d m.a. and the 200-d m.a. is ideal and is graphically presented on each chart in this post
  • The odds of success increase with each failed attempt for the stock price to recover these major long term moving averages.
  • Head and shoulder tops can also serve as ideal setups for potential shorts if they take at least five months to develop.
  • A decreasing relative strength line and a negative pattern on the point and figure chart can also confirm that the stock is rolling over and setting up an ideal short.
  • Finally, volume should be increasing and the stock should be under distribution as it violates the major moving averages and starts to break former support levels.

[Read more…]

When to Sell

Insight from the book, When to Sell, by Justin Mamis.

I highly recommend the book to every reader of this blog as I must include it as one of the better books I have ever read on the subject. Details of his selling techniques can be found in the book; today I will only share some of his notable wisdom (things we should all be familiar with but must be reminded about every now and then).

All quotes below taken from the book: When to Sell

  • Why do so few books exist on the subject of “How to Sell”?
    Selling techniques are far more complicated than buying techniques and subject to considerably more emotional pressure, than those of buying.
  • Buying is easy because many signals flash to enter a particular stock or market. However, few moments cry out for selling at precisely the right time and no simple way to lick emotions that hinder cutting the cord.
  • The formidable psychic struggle – to sell or not to sell – somehow invariably produces the wrong decision, selling prematurely when the advance has much further to go, and, having made that mistake often enough to decide it was a mistake, to leap to the other extreme with other holdings and refuse to sell at all after the top has arrived.
  • Stock market analysis is the task of separating real possibilities from mere hopes.
  • Rule One of the professional trader is: When a stock doesn’t do what you expect it to do, sell it.
  • When looking for sells signals: Once a day, once a week, in fact, should be ample when you know what to look for and what to do.
  • It is our expectations, our needs, which keep us from seeing things as they really are, and that includes recognizing that things are not going as we had dreamed they would.
  • With proper discipline and intelligent observation of the information that’s available, you ought to be able to make more money than you lose and in the stock market, that’s the only measure of being right.
  • We’ve been brought up to believe that there is a right and a wrong about everything. But there is no such absolute in the stock market. The only way to win at this game is to be consistent.
  • Well, if there is no perfect time to sell, no absolutely right end-of-the-rainbow moment, the important task is to avoid the wrong time.
  • Typically, the way institutions buy their stock is to try to accumulate it bit by bit. The order on the exchange floor is usually filled over a period of time, as they gather in the desired number of shares while trying to keep the price from leaping until they’re done. But when they do their selling, they are not so patient; having accumulated those thousands of shares, institutions usually want out as soon as the decision to sell is made.
  • The decisive act of selling may turn out, with hindsight, to be a mistake, but the indecisive act of not selling can turn out to be a disaster.
  • One of the single most important distinctions to understand about the market is that you are never buying or selling a company; you are bidding and offering in an auction of its shares.
  • To paraphrase the gambler: If you’ve never lost any money in the market, you’ve never played the game.
  • But what makes selling far more difficult than buying is that tops don’t provide comparable conveniences.
  • Stocks are bought not in fear but in hope. They are typically sold out of fear.

About Justin Mamis:
Justin Mamis independently publishes The Mamis Letter weekly, as well as other opinion products. Quotes from The Mamis Letter have appeared frequently in Barron’s and the Wall Street Journal, and his often heretical and usually grumpy comments have been heard from time to time on CNBC.

After serving as Assistant Director of the NYSE Floor Department, Justin Mamis founded the Professional Tape Reader in 1972, selling it in 1977 when he thought he was going to retire. Getting bored, he returned to New York as an “upstairs” Member-Trader for Phelan, Silver – a NYSE specialist firm – and subsequently spent several not particularly skillful months as an options trader on the AMEX floor, before gradually settling into his role as market advisory letter writer, forecaster, and philosopher on behalf of, in succession: Wertheim & Co., Cowen & Co., Gordon Capital, and Hancock Institutional Equity Services. In that time period, he was regularly elected to the Institutional Investor “All-Star Team” in the categories of Market Timing and Market Technician. Since 1996, Justin has provided his opinions to institutional investors via his independently-owned company, Noah Financial, LLC.

Justin has been a prolific writer in the business and investing arena. The original edition of When to Sell was first published in 1977 (Farrar, Straus & Giroux); it was updated (Third Edition) in 1999 and published by Fraser Publishing (www.fraserpublishing.com). When to Buy was published by Farrar, Straus & Giroux in 1982; a Second Edition was published in 2001 by Fraser. His personal favorite – because it is more philosophical in tone – is The Nature of Risk – Stock Market Survival &. The Meaning of Life (published in 1991 by Addison Wesley, and updated from the original publication by Fraser Publishing in 1999). A self-published (in 1995) collection of “Ten Sermons by a Non-Rabbi” includes a “Stock Market Sermon.”

CROX getting Swallowed

I wrote a post titled Will CROX get Eaten? on September 20, 2007 and strongly noted the declining institutional support (see numbers below). Someone was jumping out of the stock and we now know why!

110107_crox_pre.PNG

Stocks only churn when buyers and sellers are struggling to take control. More often than not, stocks churn because BIG institutions are selling shares to the small retail buyer (the sucker). Institutional numbers and charts that back them up don’t lie! The big boys can’t hide if you know how to read them.

Crocs Inc. (CROX) is down about 25% in pre-market trading after it released disappointing revenue and a poor outlook going forward.

FAD!

See my analysis from September; the foreshadowing of today’s opening:

Recent churning action below $60 per share shows that buyers are no longer in control of the stock. However, sellers haven’t completely gained control either. It is a tug-of-war between supply and demand as we await the ultimate direction of the next trend for the heavily covered Crocs Inc. (CROX).

Study these institutional numbers – it was clear in September!

Listen to what the Institutional Buyers are Saying (with their actions):
Held by Institutions: 557
Money Market: 241
Mutual Fund: 304
Other: 12

New Positions: 172
Positions Sold: 75
Shares Held: 104.9 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 118.1 mil

Shares Bought: 28.5 mil
Shares Sold: 41.7 mil

Value of Shares Bought: $1.68 bil
Value of Shares Sold: $2.46 bil

110107_crox_wkly.png

  • The number of shares held has decreased by 12%
  • The number of shares sold exceeded the number of shares bought by 46%
  • The value of shares sold was $776 million more than bought

We knew someone was dumping shares in September and trying to do it quietly but they weren’t quiet enough. Yes the stock went on to breakout from the churn area but it continued to make new highs on lower volume – a red flag!

Someone is getting off this rising star! Now, the question remains: Will this former rising star turn into a “thing of the past” falling star? CROX looks like a fad to me because the shoes are hideous but they make a TON OF MONEY! I am no longer confident about a long position but I CAN’T take a short point of view either. Not until the signal bell rings! If it confirms, JUMP ON IT – IN EITHER DIRECTION!