The Fear of Losing Money

Many investors fail in this world due to their fear of losing money. Brilliant people continue to fail at trading the markets because of their emotions, not their intelligence or their work ethic. It’s their psychological make-up and their pre-programmed society based beliefs as partially explained in The Holy Grail of Trading: It’s not your System.

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I don’t want to confuse the concept of conserving one’s wealth by employing proper money management techniques and the actual fear of going broke. Fearful investors base their entire system, thoughts and style of investing on a negative thought process or a negative mental attitude. Successful investors, whether it is stocks, real estate or businesses, always develop strategies to protect from the down-side by focusing on the reward versus the original risk. Successful investors develop systems with expectancies that allow them to negate emotional fear by knowing what can happen if the investment fails. Successful investors are emotionally prepared to handle the side effects of losing money. Unsuccessful investors think about losing the initial investment and more often than not, pass up on a potential golden opportunity.

How many times have you heard a person say: ‘if I only put my money into that stock or that piece of real estate”? These same people are also the ones that continue to pass up on potential opportunities today because they are scared to lose. Nothing comes easy and life rarely serves up a free pass without some form of risk attached. When speaking in terms of stocks, an investor must place money after their best ideas or they will never know if they have a winning system. Many people paper trade and claim they can pick winners but I view them as fearful of losing money. The fear of money and the fear of losing are two of the main reasons why so many people go broke on Wall Street.

If you don’t fear money and can accept losing as part of the game, you will eventually become successful.

A scared poker player can serve as a perfect example of the type of person that fears to lose money. Take the time to sit at any $1-$2 no-limit hold’em game at a casino and you will quickly realize who fears money and who plays without fear. Good players may continually lose because they fear the dollar and fail to play according to their strategy. I have seen several bad players win lots of money at the tables because they bully the scared players out of their hands. They essentially make suckers out of the better player so in the end; the better player goes home broke and emotionally damaged.

For example: let’s say you are dealt a KK and raise on the first bet but one of these fearless “garbage bully players” re-raises all-in to scare you out of the pot.
Would you fold?

I have heard many stories of players folding high quality hands due to their fear of getting a bad beat. In this case, the bully can only represent one hand that can beat yours, so the odds are heavily in your favor so you must call and call quickly (don’t have fear when the odds say you should win). Two remedies exist for the fear of a bad loss: a bankroll that can withstand a few bad beats and a strategy that capitalizes on hands with high odds for potential winners. Over the long term, you will be a consistent winner but must understand that beats will happen and some of them will be large (if it is a bad beat). Assuming that you let go or cut poor hands short, these larger losses can be avoided consistently. In poker and in life: scared money is dead money!

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The same principal holds true in investing and in life. The people that assume the risk and calculate the odds of success are typically the ones that come out ahead with larger bank accounts. They don’t focus on the losing aspect of a deal and never blurt out the words “what-if”. To repeat, they don’t ignore possible failures as they prepare for the worst and expect the best. I will not deny that I have been in situations where I was scared to lose but that helped me seek out the answers to consistent winning. Losing will always sting but I now accept losing as part of the game.

I expect to win each trade but ultimately understand that some will fail and it’s ok as long as I don’t let it become catastrophic. I have learned to accept losing trades, losing money and I have challenged the fear of money. I place risk under control by developing and using a positive expectancy system, position sizing and money management techniques that eliminate my fear of losing money. I may lose many small battles but I depend on my system to win the ultimate war. I am a trend-trader so my wins are large in a market similar to what we have just experienced.

Read this quote from the movie Rounders:

“In “Confessions of a Winning Poker Player,” Jack King said, “Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career.” It seems true to me, cause walking in here, I can hardly remember how I built my bankroll, but I can’t stop thinking about the way I lost it.”

That quote can be tied to investing with great accuracy.

One more quote that fits with the article I have written about the fear of losing money:

“They’re trying to goad me, trying to own me. But this isn’t a gunfight. It’s not about pride or ego. It’s only about money. I can leave now, even with Grama and KGB… and halfway to paying Petrovsky back. That’s the safe play. I told Worm you can’t lose what you don’t put in the middle. But you can’t win much either.”

What are you afraid of?

The Holy Grail of Trading: It’s not your System

Do you have a wonderful trading system, one that consistently makes you money? You probably believe that you have found your holy grail but this couldn’t be further from the truth. Your system has very little to do with consistent profitability in the markets.

I often here amateur investors talk about that the “best way” or “only way” to invest and argue why their way is better than everyone else’s. The passion and energy exuded by these novice investors is wonderful but they are missing the point completely. No one can say that options are better than stocks, commodities are better than options or forex is better than everything, etc… Each investor develops a system that is suited to their own personal character traits and they use a vehicle (stocks, options, forex, commodities, real estate, etc…) that can help them reach their goals.

Investors also debate systems within a market such as: trend trading, swing trading, scalping, shorting, day trading, buy and hold, fundamental trading, technical trading, Elliot wave theory, moving average crossovers, etc… They all work if the “person” understands the holy grail of trading. And that is being able to understand YOU and how your mind works.

However, it is not the system that makes one successful. It is YOU that makes the system work properly. What do I mean? Each individual must master their own personal psychological impacts on their trading results. You must work on YOU to become consistently successful! I recommend reading The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas if you would like to understand the psychological trader in you.

To say that one system or vehicle is the “way to go” is ignorant.

Pick up any Market Wizard book and read how these men and women made hundreds of millions in the markets using different systems. The only thing they all had in common was money management and risk management. That’s ALL! Every one of them traded in different ways and used different vehicles but they all watched their risk, calculated proper position sizing techniques and understood their system’s expectancy.

Money management, also termed as risk management is a major part of the holy grail of investing, NOT THE SYSTEM! Novice investors will eventually understand this after many years of trading (some quicker than others).

So, if someone ever tells you that their “system” is better than yours, turn away and run and run fast because they don’t know what the hell they are talking about.

Here are some examples supporting this idea from the Market Wizard books:

  • Michael Marcus turned $30,000 into $80 million trading futures
  • Michael Steinhardt ran a fund that averaged 30% annual return over 21 years trading stocks
  • Tom Baldwin started with $25,000 and eventually traded $2 billion a day in T-bond futures on the floor or in the pit.
  • Paul Tudor Jones ran funds that averaged triple digit returns for five consecutive years trading multiple markets
  • Ed Seykota realized an astounding 250,000% return over 16 years (yes that says 250,000%) managing accounts trading in the futures markets – possibly the best trader of our time
  • Bill Lipschutz traded currencies with a staring account of $12,000 (started out as an architect – very motivating for me since I started the same way).

The list can go on forever but the point remains the same; they all traded different markets with unique systems from different locations (the floor, an office or their home in the mountains) but they all had one major factor in common: money management and risk management.

Just about every market wizard refers to position sizing as a major part of the “holy grail” of trading. Van Tharp (also featured in Market Wizards) coined the phase in the first edition of his book but he only realized that money management was the holy grail after studying and speaking with hundreds, if not thousands of very successful traders. Tharp’s Book, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, is a must read if you would like to understand position sizing and expectancy and learn more about understanding “you”.

The Holy Grail of Trading:
Understanding you and combining that with sound money management rules. Conquer these two entities and you will be successful beyond your wildest dreams!

Don’t be Greedy

I have talked numerous times about the market moving 30% higher than it was last year and how this is a warning of a pending correction in the near future.

I want you to understand that I can’t pick a top and I don’t know when a top will occur but be prepared. That’s all I can do to help my readers.

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With that said, I am starting to read some very cocky blogs that are posting up their “amazing” winning stock “picks” over the past few months. This is fine as I too have posted my best trades and stock selections from 2006 and 2007 but I understand the difference between success and some market luck.

I tend to agree with Howard Lindzon’s post today, GREED on Wallstrip…A Parody of A Few Good Men, as he states:
“The main thing is don’t get caught up in the hysteria of great markets. You are not that smart. The markets are making you money.”

I completely agree with his statement and always repeat the cliché:
“Don’t confuse brains with a bull market”

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The market is good; it has been trending higher for months and everyone should be making money. If you are not, something is very wrong with your system, your approach or your mental makeup towards trading.

Whatever your portfolio has done, understand that the market should get most of the credit for your recent gains and your emotions need to eliminate the sense of superiority and greed. I can’t stress enough how you must protect your profits when the general market is up 30% over its levels from last year. Set hard physical stops and don’t chase extended stocks even if they have excellent fundamental and technical characteristics. I am currently having this struggle with Shutterfly (SFLY). I missed the ideal risk-to-reward setup so I must let it go. I am not going to post a case study either, unless it sets up another ideal entry. Don’t chase extended stocks, especially at this phase of an up-trend.

A couple Jesse Livermore quotes:
“There is nothing more important than your emotional balance”
“But careful timing is essential…impatience is costly”

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With that said, I know my profits in stocks such as MA, BIDU and EDU have a lot to do with the overall market gains, not my intellect.

Think and Grow Rich – Napoleon Hill

Napoleon Hill, the author of Think and Grow Rich, may be one of the greatest inspirational speakers of all-time (which is still in print in several versions, and has sold more than thirty million copies). Reading the book is one thing but listening to the man on audio CD is amazing. The enthusiasm, the passion and authority he commands can make any long trip skip by in a flash. I always leave the car energized and pumped-up to accomplish amazing things after listening to his tapes.

Many of these tapes I am referring to were recorded more than 50 years ago but they are as relevant as anything today and certainly more genuine than the so-called guru’s of modern personal-success literature.

I am not speaking about the audio CD of the book Think and Grow Rich but rather the actual recording of the lectures that Hill held around the country while rising to and after achieving prominence.

If I had to recommend one set of tapes, it would have to be Your Right to be Rich which includes inspiring lectures by Hill himself.

In these rare recordings on CD you will hear a complete and thorough exposition of Napoleon Hill’s philosophy as you listen to him interpret and amplify the 17 universal principles of success. These lectures are designed to motivate you and teach you the goals and strategies that will carry you to new heights of personal success. Before there was The Secret, Napoleon Hill was the father of success around the world.

The lectures in this audio, recorded in the 1950s, are fascinating glimpses into his steadfast, somewhat authoritarian, and eminently relevant teachings. Though his speaking style often has an overly aggressive quality, there’s something magical about hearing it. We are handed many gifts, Hill says, many opportunities for meaning, but we can tap into them only when we connect with the guiding force that put them there. We do this by dedicating ourselves to a single purpose in life, and paying daily attention to programming our subconscious minds. This is a seminal work on the basics of personal motivation.

For those of you that are not familiar with Hill’s work, I can tell you that he personally studied some of the most successful businessmen and leaders of his time, including but not limited to Andrew Carnegie, Thomas Edison, Alexander Graham Bell, George Eastman, Henry Ford, Elmer Gates, John D. Rockefeller, Charles M. Schwab, F.W. Woolworth, William Wrigley Jr., John Wanamaker, William Jennings Bryan, Theodore Roosevelt, William H. Taft, Woodrow Wilson, Charles Allen Ward and Jennings Randolph.

By listening and understanding the keys to success, you can achieve a level of mental self-mastery that will enable you consistently to:

  • Overcome fears to reach your achievements
  • Maintain self-discipline and self-confidence
  • Develop strong personal initiative
  • Focus your thoughts into clear plans of action
  • Mental skills needed to meet the challenge of transforming your ideas into realized accomplishments.
  • Discover proven strategies for bouncing back from failure.
  • Manage your time effectively.
  • Inspire others to work with you.

These teachings and recordings have helped with all aspects of my life including trading, business, marriage, personal relationships and my own emotional and mental makeup.

For further reading on Hill, please visit his wonderful page over at Wikipedia:
Napoleon Hill Biography

“Whatever the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve.” – Napoleon Hill

Paper Trading: Nothing to Lose, Nothing to Learn

With nothing on the line, emotions fall to the wayside and you will probably miss the opportunity to learn something about yourself. Trading in the market is essentially learning about yourself and how you react to positive and negative situations. A great speculator once said that the market is an expensive place to find out who you are. However, you will never find out who you are by trading a paper account or virtual portfolio.

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Paper trading seems to be the most over emphasized technique offered by market theorists, educational elite, market novices and/or market frauds. While learning the pure basics, I can see why a novice investor may want to paper trade; to see the results of the developing system but I will warn that these results are completely false. The results will not contain the emotional decisions that go along with risking your own cash. Anyone and I mean anyone can paper trade successfully.

It’s simple: place a trade and hope it goes up and if it doesn’t, you have no worries because you can’t lose. Therefore, you are apt to forget about sell stops, position sizing, risk-to-reward ratios and you will never experience the pressures of an up and down market when your position shows a profit or loss. The emotional imbalance that occurs when you really start to lose money is not present. Don’t fool yourself by believing the results of your paper trading or virtual portfolio. These things may give you some confidence in your system but they don’t prove a damn thing in the real world. The real world, specifically the stock market, is run by emotional human beings. People make decisions that are irrational and base their trading decisions on fear and greed. Paper trading lacks fear and greed because there is no gain and no loss; therefore there is no consequence to deal with.

We should all know by now that emotions are tied to our decisions in the markets so we can only get accurate results through actual trading. Learn to ignore the talking heads on TV that claim they are up over 1000% trading a fake account. What really makes me laugh is the person that sets up a virtual trading scenario and then allows each participant to trade $500,000 or more in their account. If you are going to trade a fake account, at least keep it authentic so you can try to learn something within the scope of reality; potentially money management.

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I setup one virtual trading competition a few years back and I only allowed each participant to start with $10,000, a reasonable amount, an amount that most people start trading with. Traders are undercapitalized with $10,000 but most people start trading with this amount. The competition was fun but it was not real for me or the others. I didn’t care what risks I took and I never had a problem pulling the trigger which does happen in real life. I did try to keep my trades in line with my real life account but it varied slightly. I witnessed other traders making 20 trades per day or 20-50 trades per week. This is not real because the commissions alone, even with a discount broker will wipe you out (we weren’t day trading in this competition). I did allow margin but I saw investors abusing the fake power of leverage in their virtual account, again, playing the game for fun instead of learning something valuable.

Professors and the like teach theories while investors actually do the trading! Why would I waste my time playing for fake money when I can learn and do for real? If you want to test a system, open an account with real money, even a minimal amount and give it a try. Make sure you use enough money to allow emotions to be attached to your decisions. Without the emotional attachment, you are cheating yourself and your potential results.

This article was originally written by me back in 2005 under a title: Trade for Real

I updated the article to my current beliefs and renamed it after some excellent advice from Copyblogger during a recent exercise: Headline Remix Madness – Part Two