You are here: Home / Archives for IPO

It Pays to Learn English

October 16, 2007 by 2 Comments

The young superstar, EDU, was up 12.56% Monday on volume 368% larger than average as it closed at a new all-time high. Below are the links to the extended coverage I have given EDU over the past ten months.

Yes, I did sell a portion of my shares early but the stock has become a trending superstar. The weekly chart is a perfect example of making higher highs and higher lows without violating any major trend lines.

101607_edu_wkly.png

The institutional holdings and the potential of their products and services is what truly caught my interest. The institutional holdings are still looking solid but not as good as they looked back in February. And yes, the bull in the Chinese market helped!

EDU, New Oriental Education, Added on 2/6/07 at $36.93, +104%

Here are some of the comments I made during my initial coverage:

Not a lot of data exists for the young Chinese stock so I wanted to take the time to focus on institutional holdings and the amount of shares that have been accumulated so far (the first reporting period). As you can see below, the majority of new institutional investors loaded up over the past couple of months and I suspect that it all started in November when volume surged and the price accelerated from $26 to $33.

I like when I see $227 million worth of shares purchased and 93 new institutional holders versus only $770 thousand worth of shares sold. This shows me major support and interest by the so called “smart-money”. The company sounds interesting and looks to have an excellent market (a description is below).

Held by Institutions: 13.10%
Money Market: 45 (42 new positions)
Mutual Fund: 51 (50 new positions)
Other: 1 (1 new position)

Shares Bought last Period: 6,313,271
Shares Sold last Period: 22,600
Value of Shares Bought: $227,073,203
Value of Shares Sold: $770,637

Current Institutional Holdings:
Held by Institutions: 174
Money Market: 91 (25 new positions)
Mutual Fund: 78 (23 new positions)
Other: 5 (2 new positions)

Shares Held: 23.480 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 19.552 mil

Shares Bought: 7.12 mil
Shares Sold: 3.19 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $447.5 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $200.7 mil

101607_edu_daily.png

About New Oriental
New Oriental is the largest provider of private educational services in China based on the number of program offerings, total student enrollments and geographic presence. New Oriental offers a wide range of educational programs, services and products consisting primarily of English and other foreign language training, test preparation courses for major admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the PRC and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, development and distribution of educational content, software and other technology, and online education. New Oriental’s ADSs, each of which represents four common shares, currently trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ”EDU.”

Filed Under: China, IPO, Stocks

Keep Riding the IPOs

October 11, 2007 by 14 Comments

Don’t jump off a trend until it ends. I know, the cliché gets old but it always works!
Seriously, why would we want to fight the trend. If IPOs are working in 2007, join the party.

Some of you may ask: Isn’t it too late to join the party? Did I miss the boat?

All I can say is this:
Find an opportunity, setup the risk/reward and make the trade. Sell if it stops you out and hold on if it starts to take off. Understand what you want to accomplish with each position and know precisely how you will take profits on pullbacks, climax runs, etc…

With rules in place, your overall portfolio shouldn’t get hurt. Yoy may lose a few trades but your bottom line will only decrease by a few percent and you will know the answers to the questions above (the trend may be over). Don’t guess when a trend is over, allow the market to show you when it is over!

101107_rvbd_wkly.png

Strong IPOs trending Higher:

  • VMW – 107.04, the stock completed the $60-$100 run and is now above the triple digit threshold. I am looking for a base at or slightly above $100 for a new entry (to add shares). If it doesn’t base, I will ride my original position.
  • ATV – 23.28, an interesting stock that was up 23% on volume 158% larger than the daily average. The Point and Figure chart shows a triple top breakout buy signal on a move above $24
  • WX – 40.24, An excellent run over the past two months doubling investor’s money. I am looking for a short term base to form before attempting to grab shares. The pullback area for the next buy would be near $35.
  • EDU – 68.00, the stock is up almost 100% on the blog and is a personal holding. I did sell a portion of my position too early over the summer. They teach English to students and adults in China (talk about a money maker).
  • FCSX – 36.71, up 7% on volume 19% above the average as the stock is starting to gain momentum above the 50-d moving average. It looks like a good time to start accumulating shares (above the 50-d m.a.)
  • RVBD – 49.38, The stock is building an eleven week base with solid support near $37 (above the 200-d m.a.). Ideal entries should happen along the moving averages (50-d and 200-d) or a breakout to new all-time highs.
  • JCG – 45.88, the retailer is basing along the 200-d m.a. Now is the ideal buy for longer term trend traders. It’s a prime 200-d m.a. play (excellent risk/reward right now). However, it does need to overcome the 50-d m.a. to be successful!!!
  • JASO – 42.93, the stock has formed a perfect cup with handle base with a pivot point of $48.67. A spread triple top breakout buy exists on a move above $49.

101107_jcg_wkly.png

Others that make the list but are extended:
CMG, CPLA, SNCR, GTLS, CROX, FSLR

Filed Under: Daily Stock Screens, IPO, Stocks

VMware Completes First Run

October 10, 2007 by 2 Comments

VMware (VMW) completed the first stage of a run I anticipated early last month. I said to look for a push towards the triple digit threshold for a $60-$100 run. A run that is common among stocks with strong fundamentals and up-trending technicals (or hot IPO’s – the case here).

101007_vmw_wkly.png

According to records, only 4 Mutual Funds bought new stock as of October 1, 2007. They owned a collective 4,800 shares for a value of $395,328. I expect this limited data to explode during the next “full” reporting period. It’s too bad I can’t find real time institutional data as that would be awesome. Only a select few get real time institutional data. For the rest of us: read the price and volume charts!

By the way, the stock has a forward P/E ratio of 162.09x
Is that too high to buy? All I can say is that some thought the price of VMW was too high at $69.

Daily Screen for Friday 9-7-07

VMW – 69.79, it’s the first time I am covering the stock as it is yet to build any recognizable base. However, the support and hype is still there so be ready to pounce on pullbacks and look for a ride towards the triple digit threshold ($100). An unusual $60-$100 run.

Daily Screen for Tuesday 9-11-07

VMW – 76.76, the stock was up 10.45% on one of the largest daily volume days since its debut. Today’s move shot the stock into new all-time high territory. The stock is up 20% over the past four days.

Filed Under: IPO, Stocks

Is SSRX the Next JRJC

October 2, 2007 by 6 Comments

3S Bio Inc. (SSRX) was up more than 15% on volume 1,500% larger than the 50-day average. The volume was 15 times greater than the average after a large volume boost yesterday as noted by Trading Goddess.

100207_ssrx_daily.png

China Finance Online Co. Inc. (JRJC) has blasted higher by 320% over the past month on tremendous volume. No, I didn’t own it!

100207_jrjc_daily.png

I wouldn’t have noticed SSRX either except for a quick highlight on a few blogs I read and a modified research screen I ran this afternoon. The overall daily volume in SSRX is slightly lower than the parameters I typically search.

In any event, I know about it now and have a decision to make: would I like to join this dangerous party. A run to $30 is not out of the question based on the recent infatuation with Chinese stocks (similar to our tech stocks of the late 1990’s).

I will look to grab a small position in the AM tomorrow (keep my exposure low due to a lack of an ideal risk/reward setup).

Filed Under: China, IPO

Will CROX get Eaten?

September 20, 2007 by 11 Comments

Are we about to jump on a falling star or is this a slight hiccup for the former super star?
I labeled CROX a rising star that I missed in my own portfolio back on June 25, 2007 in Catch a Rising Star.

Recent churning action below $60 per share shows that buyers are no longer in control of the stock. However, sellers haven’t completely gained control either. It is a tug-of-war between supply and demand as we await the ultimate direction of the next trend for the heavily covered Crocs Inc. (CROX).

092007_crox_wkly.png

I wrote this on my Daily Screen on Friday, September 7, 2007:

CROX – 58.40, the stock seems to be hitting some resistance near $60 but that is quite normal in this area. Look for a pullback of 10%-20% with support above the 200-d m.a. If is holds the support, develop a strong risk-to-reward trade setup and pounce with a possible $60-$100 run in the future.

It has been eight weeks of sideways action as CROX did not participate in the party that happened on Wall Street after the Fed announcement. Stocks such as BIDU continued to party while CROX has decided to take a breather.

So, what do I think? Don’t listen to me because I am biased and hate the look of those ugly shoes. I hate them even more since I never owned the stock while it ran up more than 300% over the past twelve months.

Listen to what the Institutional Buyers are Saying (with their actions):
Held by Institutions: 557
Money Market: 241
Mutual Fund: 304
Other: 12

New Positions: 172
Positions Sold: 75
Shares Held: 104.9 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 118.1 mil

Shares Bought: 28.5 mil
Shares Sold: 41.7 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $1.68 bil
Value of Shares Sold: $2.46 bil

So, there you have it. It starts off by looking good with 97 more buyers than sellers. But, the rest of the data doesn’t paint such a bright picture:

  • The number of shares held has decreased by 12%
  • The number of shares sold exceeded the number of shares bought by 46%
  • The value of shares sold was $776 million more than bought

Someone is getting off this rising star! Now, the question remains: Will this former rising star turn into a “thing of the past” falling star? CROX looks like a fad to me because the shoes are hideous but they make a TON OF MONEY! I am no longer confident about a long position but I CAN’T take a short point of view either. Not until the signal bell rings! If it confirms, JUMP ON IT – IN EITHER DIRECTION!

WE TRADE TRENDS, NOT OPINIONS SO LOOK FOR THE SIGNAL!

Filed Under: IPO, Stocks
« Previous Page
Next Page »