Stock of the Day
Blackstone Group LP (BX)
Tuesday’s Opening Price: BX – $25.50

Sector: Financial
Industry: Asset Management
52-week Price: $21.30 – $38.00

Let’s start with institutional sponsorship: 187 new positions, 1 sold out position. The last stock I covered with this type of dominance was EDU at $36 in February (it now trades above $90). More than one billion dollars of shares were purchased by the institutional community with much of that going to mutual funds. The money managers haven’t even jumped on board, as of yet!

Based on that information alone, I have been accumulating shares and long term calls. As you can see on my trade set-up below, I raised the maximum risk to 2% of total portfolio value to $2,000 for a $100k account. Why? it’s more of a value play for me than my traditional trend trade (but I am grabbing shares like a trend trader). I have included a short term and long term target based on future earnings, chart setups and company potential (basically it’s a pure guess if you really want to know)! The stop is 12% but I could let it run to 15% if my cost basis were to drop from today’s numbers. *Note: I have been accumulating prior to today’s write-up.

Potential Trade Set-up:
Ideal Entry: $25.50
Risk is set at 2.0% of total portfolio or $2,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 12% or $2,000
Number of Shares: 650
Position Size is $16,575
Risk is $3.06
Target is $36 (short term) $50+ long term
Reward-to-Risk is 3.42-to-1 (short term) 8-to-1 (long term)

Blackstone (BX) has only been featured on this blog one other time in a post titled Google Blackstone Group (BX) on June 29, 2007.

I am not saying that BX will be the next GOOG but it can give you some comfort that GOOG did drop and pause prior to making a run.

I don’t have a true trend-trading rating on Blackstone but I would lean towards “Buy” over the longer term!

Institutional Analysis:
Held by Institutions: 198 or 9.50%
Money Market: 32
Mutual Fund: 160
Other: 6

New Positions: 187
Positions Sold: 1
Shares Held: 49.54 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 6.30 mil

Shares Bought: 43.24mil
Shares Sold: 0.55mil
Value of Shares Bought: $1.076 billion
Value of Shares Sold: $1.38 mil

[Read more…]

Many top rated IPOs are on the move early today with several of our covered stocks making new all-time highs. IPOs have been the bread and butter in 2007 so I am sticking with the hot hand (the most obvious trend of the year).

*All prices from early morning screen*

• EDU – 90.32, is up over $5 for a 141% gain on the blog as volume is surging above average within the first hour of trading.
• CROX – 72.65, the stock is making new all-time highs as it continues to confirm it’s latest double top breakout on the point and figure chart
• VMW – 115.30, the stock is up several dollars as it flirts will all-time highs while making a move on slightly larger than average volume
• MA – 159.57, the stock is still moving higher from its most recent bounce off of its 50-d moving average *retracing slightly as I get ready to post this blog thread*
• SSRX – 18.60, the stock has popped 16% in early morning trading as it breaks the recent five day consolidation range. It is back within striking distance of new highs. Early morning volume is 1,500% larger than the average.
• FSLR – 152.90, still going higher as it continues to make new all-time highs with above average volume. Almost a 7 fold gain since the IPO debut

• LULU – 52.69, I missed this one for my portfolio and have never written about it on the blog. Up a few percent early this morning as it looks to recover from last week’s reversal of an all-time high. A nice $60-$100 candidate if it can establish itself above the $60 level.
• WX – 41.37, the stock had its first ideal moving average accumulation buy last week when it dipped as low as $30.10 intraday. I like this one closer to the 50-d moving average.
• JASO – 57.86, a long time favorite on this blog; it flirted with an intraday all-time high during the opening minutes this morning. It will become a $60-$100 play if it can establish a base or support near $60.
• MR – 39.93, currently sitting on the 50-d m.a. for a solid risk/reward play with a tight stop. Look for continued base building and then a push to new highs (give it some time to develop).
  SFLY – 33.75, currently building a short term support structure along the 50-d m.a. Grab it in this area for a solid risk/reward and a push to new highs.
• OMTR – 36.91, within striking distance of a new all-time high as the young IPO continues to offer entry areas along the 50-day moving average.

I don’t like spec plays heading into a conference call but I am playing VMW on the long side today, using options. I did buy distant puts to lower the risk so I guess I have a funky long straddle set to go. Let’s see what happens.

VMware, Inc. Earnings Conference Call (Q3 2007)
Scheduled to start Wed, Oct 24, 2007, 5:00 pm Eastern

VMware Completes First Run

Don’t guess when a trend is over, allow the market to show you when it is over!

Keep Riding the IPOs

VMW – 107.04, the stock completed the $60-$100 run and is now above the triple digit threshold. I am looking for a base at or slightly above $100 for a new entry (to add shares). If it doesn’t base, I will ride my original position.

Daily Screen for Friday 9-7-07

VMW – 69.79, it’s the first time I am covering the stock as it is yet to build any recognizable base. However, the support and hype is still there so be ready to pounce on pullbacks and look for a ride towards the triple digit threshold ($100). An unusual $60-$100 run.

Daily Screen for Tuesday 9-11-07

VMW – 76.76, the stock was up 10.45% on one of the largest daily volume days since its debut. Today’s move shot the stock into new all-time high territory. The stock is up 20% over the past four days.