The Next Chinese IPO – GU

We’ve had a very successful year here on chrisperruna.com with Chinese stocks, specifically Chinese IPO stocks.

Of the five Chinese stocks I have owned, JASO has been the top performer in my portfolio from start to finish. BIDU is a close second and would have been first by a long shot if I had held the entire time. The others are MR, PTR and EDU.

The Next Chinese IPO:
Now it’s time to jump on the next IPO that’s about to debut on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol “GU”. Chinese biodiesel fuel producer Gushan Environmental Energy Ltd. (GU) said it plans to raise about $171.6 million in an initial public offering of American Depositary Shares (ADS).

121807_gushan.png

According to an SEC filing, Gushan is selling 15 million ADS, and a group of selling shareholders is offering 3 million ADS. Each ADS represents two ordinary shares. Gushan expects the offering to price between $11.50 and $13.50 per ADS (assume $12.50 per share to equal the $171.6 million mentioned above).

The company plans to use a majority of the IPO proceeds to expand its production capacity by buying manufacturing equipment and constructing additional facilities. Remaining proceeds will be used for research and development efforts and for other general corporate purposes.

According to an Associated Press article, Gushan is the largest biodiesel producer in China in terms of annual production capacity in 2006. The company produced and sold 136,587 tons of biodiesel in the first nine months of 2007, and aims to increase annual production capacity to 400,000 tons by the end of 2008. An increase of almost 200% (something that peaks my interest).

What is Biodiesel?

Biodiesel is a renewable, clean-burning and biodegradable fuel produced from feedstocks such as vegetable oil, animal fat and recycled cooking oil. Typically blended with diesel fuel, biodiesel is used in the diesel engines of trucks, mass transit vehicles, ships and generators. Additionally, the byproducts of biodiesel production have numerous commercial applications in the food, pharmaceutical and manufacturing industries.

121807_biodiesel.png

For the nine months ended Sept. 30, the company reported income of $33.4 million, compared with $36 million in the prior-year period. Revenue for the period rose to $98.3 million from $81.5 million in the first nine months of 2006.

Merrill Lynch & Co. is serving as lead underwriter of the offering. CIBC World Markets and Piper Jaffray are also underwriting the IPO. The selling shareholders have given the underwriters the option to buy up to 2.7 million additional ADS at the offering price to cover any overallotments.

Competitors:

  • China Biodiesel International Holdings
  • East River Energy Resources
  • SINOPEC
  • CNOOC
  • PetroChina

Tuesday Update (I wrote this piece over the weekend):
Chinese biodiesel producer Gushan Environmental Energy Ltd on Tuesday raised about $173 million with an initial public offering that priced below expectations. (Not Good – this sector is getting hit over the past week)

The 18 million offering of American depositary shares sold for $9.60 apiece, compared with a forecast range of $11.50 to $13.50, according to an underwriter.

My View on Chinese Stocks in General (12/19/07):
I understand that the Chinese market is currently in the middle of a bubble type run but who is to say when that bubble will end. Bubbles can last a lot longer than many believe. You can try to predict when it will end but I will continue to trade it until is really ends! I’ll let you know where I get in and how the trade sets up. I am five for five with Chinese stocks in 2007 so why not jump in and grab another. I had people tell me I was crazy ten months ago when I was buying stocks like EDU and MR (bought JASO and BIDU a few months later).

The stock may or may not work but I trade opportunities, not predictions! What do you trade?

Anticipating the VISA IPO

VISA, the largest U.S. credit card network said it is looking to raise $1o billion in an initial public offering, according to a registration statement with the SEC.

They plan to take a portion of the IPO proceeds to pay settlements or judgments related to litigation settlements. For example, VISA agreed to pay American Express up to $2.07 billion to settle a lawsuit alleging the company illegally stifled competition.

I am excited for the VISA IPO along with many investors after the success of Mastercard (MA). I entered Mastercard after its first major run but still managed to make a handsome profit with my buy above $107. The stock currently trades at $186.77 and recently broke out a cup with handle base above the pivot point of $169.26.

111507_visa.png

Why do I like VISA’s potential?

  • $1o Billion would represent the second largest IPO ever!
  • Revenues are expected to grow steadily as consumers continue to use their cards
  • VISA processed 44 billion transactions totaling $3.2 trillion in 2006 (Mastercard processed 23.4 billion transactions totaling $1.9 trillion)
  • VISA has made $771 million on $3.7 billion in revenue during the first nine months of 2007
  • VISA makes their money from the fees it charges to card users and merchants using its network
  • Mastercard is half the size of VISA and is up 5-fold from its IPO

BEST OF ALL:

  • Because it acts as an intermediary, Visa doesn’t sustain losses when consumers don’t repay the debts run up on credit cards bearing its brand. Those liabilities instead fall to the banks that issue the cards and set the terms of repayment
  • Most of Visa’s major stockholders are banks. They include: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which owns 23.3 percent of the company’s Class B Stock; Bank of America Corp., 11.5 percent; National City Corp., 8 percent; Citigroup Inc., 5.5 percent; U.S. Bancorp, 5.1 percent; and Wells Fargo & Co., 5.1 percent.

NO RISK for VISA; the banks are responsible for the cardholders that don’t pay their bills. What could be better than that? Tell me!

111507_ma.png

Mastercard (MA) Charging Ahead

Mastercard (MA) looks like it’s heading for $200 and beyond after the recent numbers presented to Wall Street. Some analysts are cutting their ratings but what do they know. Listen to those talking heads and you will go broke. But hey, they’re experts!

110207_ma_wkly.png

I do note this: Don’t expect the rate of growth to continue at this clip so the rise of the stock may slow heading into next year. In addition, many people will be looking forward to the Visa IPO in the future.

Revenues hit a record $1.08 billion in the quarter, while earnings were $2.31 per share, vs. $1.42 a year ago. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts were expecting earnings of just $1.43 per share. Also helping the stock, MasterCard announced a plan to buy back $750 million of its stock.

Below is some of the coverage of MA on the blog (beginning on April 2, 2007 at $107.28)
Closed Thurday at $189.48 for a 77% gain on the blog:

  • Is Mastercard Priceless

    Monday’s Intra-day Price: MA – $107.28
    Bottom Line: MA is rated a buy in my book and I am grabbing shares today.
    *This blog post is not a recommendation to buy this or any other stock. Please do your own due diligence and buy and sell at your own risk!

    4/2/07: “Longer term trend investors can establish a position now at the 50-d moving average or at least start to initiate a position by accumulating shares. Look for a confirmation on a move to the up-side above the trading range I have highlighted in blue on the weekly chart.”

  • Mastercard Pays Off
  • Cash Back from Mastercard and Baidu
  • Daily Screen for Wednesday 9-12-07
  • (MA) – 132.17, Mastercard is correcting and touching the 200-d m.a. for the first time since the line formed. As one of my big winners this year in my own portfolio, I still consider it a watch if it can hold the long term moving average support. Please note that I took down my position in July at precisely the correct point as noted here: Taking Partial Profits

110207_ma_daily.png

CROX getting Swallowed

I wrote a post titled Will CROX get Eaten? on September 20, 2007 and strongly noted the declining institutional support (see numbers below). Someone was jumping out of the stock and we now know why!

110107_crox_pre.PNG

Stocks only churn when buyers and sellers are struggling to take control. More often than not, stocks churn because BIG institutions are selling shares to the small retail buyer (the sucker). Institutional numbers and charts that back them up don’t lie! The big boys can’t hide if you know how to read them.

Crocs Inc. (CROX) is down about 25% in pre-market trading after it released disappointing revenue and a poor outlook going forward.

FAD!

See my analysis from September; the foreshadowing of today’s opening:

Recent churning action below $60 per share shows that buyers are no longer in control of the stock. However, sellers haven’t completely gained control either. It is a tug-of-war between supply and demand as we await the ultimate direction of the next trend for the heavily covered Crocs Inc. (CROX).

Study these institutional numbers – it was clear in September!

Listen to what the Institutional Buyers are Saying (with their actions):
Held by Institutions: 557
Money Market: 241
Mutual Fund: 304
Other: 12

New Positions: 172
Positions Sold: 75
Shares Held: 104.9 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 118.1 mil

Shares Bought: 28.5 mil
Shares Sold: 41.7 mil

Value of Shares Bought: $1.68 bil
Value of Shares Sold: $2.46 bil

110107_crox_wkly.png

  • The number of shares held has decreased by 12%
  • The number of shares sold exceeded the number of shares bought by 46%
  • The value of shares sold was $776 million more than bought

We knew someone was dumping shares in September and trying to do it quietly but they weren’t quiet enough. Yes the stock went on to breakout from the churn area but it continued to make new highs on lower volume – a red flag!

Someone is getting off this rising star! Now, the question remains: Will this former rising star turn into a “thing of the past” falling star? CROX looks like a fad to me because the shoes are hideous but they make a TON OF MONEY! I am no longer confident about a long position but I CAN’T take a short point of view either. Not until the signal bell rings! If it confirms, JUMP ON IT – IN EITHER DIRECTION!

3SBio (SSRX) on the Move

3SBio Inc. (SSRX) is up over 5% in trading today and now has a 28% gain since I highlighted it on the blog earlier this month at $17.34. Volume has been exploding as the stock reaches new highs and continues to play a role in the China bull market!

103107_ssrx_daily.png

The stock made it’s debut in a post where I asked the question:
Is SSRX the Next JRJC

A run to $30 is not out of the question based on the recent infatuation with Chinese stocks (similar to our tech stocks of the late 1990’s).

I will look to grab a small position in the AM tomorrow (keep my exposure low due to a lack of an ideal risk/reward setup).

SSRX then went on to make a screen titled, IPOs on the Move which I uploaded earlier this week at $18.60.

SSRX – 18.60, the stock has popped 16% in early morning trading as it breaks the recent five day consolidation range. It is back within striking distance of new highs. Early morning volume is 1,500% larger than the average.