Buffett a huge bull on the American Economy

I am a trend trader, as mentioned hundreds of times, but I listen when Mr. Warren Buffett speaks! Below are the most logical statements I have heard in a long time. He makes much more sense than the predictions we are bombarded with by the talking head media and so-called “experts”. The so-called experts barely take home a six figure salary (if half of that), many stuck in the rat race but are qualified by major networks and media outlets to educate the masses (or sheep as I like to call them).

I’ll pass on the information from all the talking-heads and listen very attentively when the second richest man on the planet and greatest investor of all-time speaks. I am also bullish on the United States over the long term as nations and markets work in cycles. I am not a believer in doomsday predictions, authors, books or religions. Like Warren Buffett and William O’Neil, I am long the United States for the rest of my life until something shows me the trend has ended. The past several years (dating back to 2000) are a small pimple on the ass of this great country.

“I am a huge bull on the American economy,” said Mr. Buffett, in an exclusive interview with the National Post.

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Financial markets around the world have been heaving amid fears that banks will have restrain lending and damage other areas of the economy in order to shore up their capital and rebuild their balance sheets.

But Mr. Buffett says the United States has survived such turmoil before.

“We’ll always get through,” he said. “I’m a bull on the United States. Just think about how silly it would have been to be anything other than a bull on the United States since 1790. It is not a smart thing to sell the United States short over the years — or Canada for that matter. The world does get better. People get more productive. More human capacity is unleashed over time.”

“He said the banks will be able to work out their troubles without government assistance but may not be the “best investments.”

“They’re going to be around,” he said. “The ones that have taken the big write-offs, they’re not going out of business but they’re selling a lot of new shares in the process so they’re diluting future earnings. They’re paying a price.

“I think most of the very big ones and I won’t name names, I think five or 10 years from now people will have made money on them but I think they’ll have made money on other things too. I don’t think necessarily they’re the best investments, but they have not been permanently crippled.”

He sees no need for any government bailouts in the financial sector, similar, to the government rescue of U.S. banks during the savings and loans crisis in the early 1980s. U.S. banks have enough money to handle the extra cost.

“They can handle it and they’re paying a price for it,” he said. “Somebody has to bear those losses. Is it better that the XYZ bank bears it or is it better to socialize it for the American public. I’d rather have the XYZ bank pay for it.”

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Could you Trade Full Time?

I get this question often and always offer the same answers to allow the person to determine if they can trade full time. I don’t trade full time and I am not sure if I ever will because I am great at what I do: trend trade longer time frames.

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Take this quick quiz and honestly determine if you are built to trade full time:

  • Are you properly capitalized?
    I wouldn’t suggest anyone start to think about trading full time until they have at least six figures that can be used solely for trading. Living expenses must come from other income or saved funds. Without six figures (and the more then better), I suggest you continue to build your stake.
  • Are you a successful part time trader?
    Why do you think you can succeed being a full time trader if you haven’t made money as a part time trader? Have you built your own stake to six figures trading part time? If so, you pass this question with flying colors.
  • Have you developed a system that works?
    Does your system have a positive expectancy? Have you back tested the system (I don’t hold too much weight to this question)? Do you understand position sizing and do you implement it properly so you don’t blow-up with one or two trades?
  • Does your system offer enough opportunity?
    Without opportunity (multiple trading signals per day/ week), you will not be able to achieve your system’s expectancy. A lack of opportunity may skew your results and turn your anticipated positive expectancy to a negative expectancy and cause you to go broke.
  • Can you handle your emotions?
    How do you handle your emotions now with longer term positions or part time trading? Do you follow your rules, all the time? Will you have pressure to make money every month, week or day? Can you handle being alone (most cases) and staring at a computer for large portions of the day?
  • Finally, do you have spouse or other influence that will interfere with your endeavor?
    A spouse, friend or family (member) can have a negative affect on your trading that may result in subconscious sabotage. Outside negative forces or nagging pressure people may lead you down a path that is not controllable because you are trying to prove something rather than “just trade” based on your acquired skills. Make sure the closest people in your life support you while making the move to full time trading.

Market Review and Links

I have an abundance of offline work that needs my attention so please enjoy the links below as they are of much value in the current market. Enjoy and see you tomorrow!

Cramer YELLED Buy, I wrote Sell

Jim Cramer was yelling about buying overvalued stocks on October 31, 2007 while I was continuously writing about selling, distribution days and taking profits. He also predicted that the banking stocks would be the top performers in 2007 – go figure (at least he paid his $50k bet for losing that prediction). YES, I did upload daily screens and stocks with the strongest relative strength ratings so I am not the superhero of calling this first bear market push but I feel very good about what I wrote (especially since the number of readers continues to increase – that says it all).

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Looking back, I offered at least a dozen high quality, highly detailed articles about some type of selling, profit taking or market distribution days. Shame on anyone (including me) that ignored the signals as they slapped us in the face, week after week!

Take a look at some of the highlighted articles I wrote as the market was topping. I think this list contains some of the best work I have ever done on this blog or my former equity research website. Finding growth stocks and presenting them during an up-trend is the easy part. Selling and profit taking is the hard part; let me correct myself – selling is the hardest aspect to grasp when trading (in my opinion of course).

A Review of Articles Talking about Selling, Profit Taking and Market Distribution:

  • 10/03/07: Is Shanghai a Nasdaq Déjà vu

    Well, the current two year rise of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index looks remarkably similar to the rise of the NASDAQ of the late 1990’s and the charts below explain better than I can!

  • 10/04/07: A Technique for Profit Taking

    What do you do in a market like today when you have profits in multiple positions but you don’t want to give it all back? You want to continue to ride the winners but at the same time, you want to maintain the unrealized gains in your account. HOW?

  • 10/12/07: Distribution Day

    This was the largest showing of volume in two months and is not healthy because it was pure distribution. It was only the second distribution day over the past month so we can’t call this a bear run but please be on the lookout for a possible correction of 5%-10%. Technology stocks led the decline as BIDU gave back 10% of its amazing run.

  • 10/15/07: How to Make Money Selling Short
  • 10/17/07: Inverse ETFs

    Have you ever wanted to short the market because you knew it was going down but your were too overwhelmed, nervous or even scared because you were unsure of how to do it. Well, Inverse ETFs may be your thing.

    These inverse ETF’s closed Wednesday with gains of 13.42%, 15.43%, 22.31% and 18.76% since I wrote about them.

  • 10/18/07:The Real PTR Climax Run?

    I was early in September by trying to locate a climax run in PTR in this post:
    Petrochina (PTR) Climax Top? However, the HUGE volume on the latest push to new highs clearly indicates something is going on.

  • 10/20/07: Second Major Distribution Day

    Technically speaking, we now have 4 distribution days for the NASDAQ and 3 for the DOW over the past month. It’s now time to start focusing big-time on the market leaders to see where they are going to take this market. If they start to roll over, you better be quick to take profits and even quicker to take losses.

  • 11/01/07: CROX getting Swallowed

    I wrote a post titled Will CROX get Eaten? on September 20, 2007 and strongly noted the declining institutional support (see numbers below). Someone was jumping out of the stock and we now know why!

  • 11/08/07: Market Corrections, Bears and the Big Picture

    Keep in mind that nearly 75% of all stocks follow the general market trend. Your cash doesn’t need to be committed to the market at all times. This philosophy is suited to making the most money in bull markets or markets trending higher.

  • 12/11/07: When to Sell

    Why do so few books exist on the subject of “How to Sell”? Selling techniques are far more complicated than buying techniques and subject to considerably more emotional pressure, than those of buying.

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I promise that I will get back to analysis and uploading charts by next week the latest. That’s what I love doing most anyway and it seems to be the biggest draw in traffic.

World Markets Plunge

Stocks were hammered worldwide Monday following Wall Street’s declines last week and speculation of a US led recession. Media outlets are blaming a weak stimulus plan developed by the US government as the culprit in some of the largest one day declines in world markets since the 9/11 attacks.

Luckily for us, our markets were closed in celebration of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. But, we must open Tuesday morning with the added pressure of watching the world drop, sending fear into investors within the lower 48. Will we follow the pack and drop heavily or open with a contrary attitude? If I was a betting man, we open lower with a gap.

The charts below highlight the large drops (many with opening gap-downs) in several markets across multiple continents (Europe, Asia and South America):

  • Britain’s benchmark FTSE-100 slumped 5.5% to 5,578.20
  • France’s CAC-40 Index tumbled 6.8% to 4,744.15
  • Germany’s blue-chip DAX 30 plunged 7.2% to 6,790.19
  • India’s benchmark stock index, Sensex, fell 7.4%
  • Hong Kong’s blue-chip Hang Seng index plummeted 5.5% to 23,818.86
  • Canadian S&P/TSX composite index was down more than 4%
  • Brazil’s stocks plunged 6.9% on the main index of Sao Paulo’s Bovespa exchange
  • Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index slid 3.9% to close at 13,325.94 points
  • China’s Shanghai Composite index plunged 5.1%

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  • The drop in Hong Kong’s market was its biggest percentage drop since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks
  • The Nikkei gave Japan its lowest close in more than two years
  • Japan’s Nikkei has now declined 13% in 2008
  • India’s Sensex saw its second-biggest percentage drop ever (it was down nearly 11% intraday)
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is now down more than 14% in 2008
  • China’s Shanghai Index is down 6.6% in 2008 and more than 20% from its all time high from October

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