Inside the Fundamentals

A reader, Steven Mac, asked me if I could highlight the key fundamental points in the case studies I post on this blog. I will list his questions (in blue) below and then answer them using the numbers of actual case studies in 2007 (MA, BIDU and EDU will be my focus). Read any of these books to understand in depth what I am looking for with fundamental analysis:

Questions:

1) What is the min number of institutions you want to see holding a stock? What is the max?
2) Shares Held/Previous Period
3) Shares Bought and Sold – total interest of all participants? increasing buy demonstrating demand on expected results? sold indicating institutions are aware of some internal number or news of future performance problems?

Question #1 Answer:
I don’t have a minimum number of institutions that I would like to see holding a stock. I also don’t like to set a maximum threshold. However, I prefer to see a young growth stock have between 50 and 300 institutional investors. This tells me that it has room to grow and more “smart money’ can pour in without saturating the stock’s market.

2/6/07: EDU: 97, 8/23/07: EDU: 159 – 64% increase
4/2/07: MA: 393, 8/23/07: MA: 513 – 30% increase
4/25/07: BIDU: 255, 8/23/07: MA: 238 – a decrease (+18 sellers last period)

*EDU had a 1900% increase in institutional buyers during the case study in february. As you know, the stock moved from $36 to $60 after the case study and sponsorship increased another 64%.

*BIDU moved from $100 to $200 after the case study as institutional investors jumped in but they have been bailing as of late.

Think about this: RIMM has 841 current holders, AAPL has 2,436 and MSFT has 3,746.

Question #2 Answer:
I pinpoint stocks that have had substantial increases in shares held versus shares held previous period. This statistic will directly correlate to the value of shares bought and the value of shares sold. As long as more money is pouring into the stocks, I will keep it on my watch list for a potential buy. The contrary is true if I am looking for reason to sell. Anything above 25% is solid and anything above 100% is substantial (PRXI was my latest case study and the shares held went from 2.8M to 11.7M for a 318% gain).

Question #3 Answer:
Shares bought is very important because it is the true number behind the increase in institutional sponsorship. For example, institutional buyers may increase by 60% but the number of new shares bought may only increase by 10% (not a good sign). But, if the number of new shares bought is a lot stronger than shares sold, we have accumulation.
EDU had 6.3M shares bought and only 22k sold – ACCUMULATION! (286:1 ratio)
MA had 36.2M shares bought and 25.3M shares sold – ACCUMULATION (3:2 ratio)
BIDU has 8.63M shares bought and 4.58M shares sold – ACCUMULATION (2:1 ratio)

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What is Realtive Strength

I received a question about Relative Strength (RS) in the comments of a recent post.

I have spent many hours reading and studying your blogs; best on the web! I am very anxious to see your new site. In the meantime, I have a question about relative strength. I have a mild understanding of relative strength based on my own research but can you explain RS in more detail especially the meaning and importance of RS numbers and how they fit into an investor’s strategy. For me, your post on January 22, 2006 that looks at Coach (COH) and Tower Group (TWGP) would be a good place to begin.

Thank you. Keep up the good work.

Paul Trombley

Paul,
Relative Strength (RS) is calculated by dividing the stock’s price by the value of a specific index (the S&P 500 in the case of IBD). It is also a measure of price trend that indicates how a stock is performing relative to other stocks in its industry.

The RS line is helpful in determining whether a stock is outperforming or lagging the general market and/or it’s industry peers.

A new relative strength high may be an indicator that a stock is prepared to make a new price high and a new relative strength low that precedes a new low in the stock can be a warning sign that a stock is in trouble and possibly going lower. (This is what I detailed in the COH and TWGP posts in early 2006).

*Today’s Top 10 RS Stocks are Listed at the Bottom of the Post (with Charts)*
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The Holy Grail of Trading: It’s not your System

Do you have a wonderful trading system, one that consistently makes you money? You probably believe that you have found your holy grail but this couldn’t be further from the truth. Your system has very little to do with consistent profitability in the markets.

I often here amateur investors talk about that the “best way” or “only way” to invest and argue why their way is better than everyone else’s. The passion and energy exuded by these novice investors is wonderful but they are missing the point completely. No one can say that options are better than stocks, commodities are better than options or forex is better than everything, etc… Each investor develops a system that is suited to their own personal character traits and they use a vehicle (stocks, options, forex, commodities, real estate, etc…) that can help them reach their goals.

Investors also debate systems within a market such as: trend trading, swing trading, scalping, shorting, day trading, buy and hold, fundamental trading, technical trading, Elliot wave theory, moving average crossovers, etc… They all work if the “person” understands the holy grail of trading. And that is being able to understand YOU and how your mind works.

However, it is not the system that makes one successful. It is YOU that makes the system work properly. What do I mean? Each individual must master their own personal psychological impacts on their trading results. You must work on YOU to become consistently successful! I recommend reading The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas if you would like to understand the psychological trader in you.

To say that one system or vehicle is the “way to go” is ignorant.

Pick up any Market Wizard book and read how these men and women made hundreds of millions in the markets using different systems. The only thing they all had in common was money management and risk management. That’s ALL! Every one of them traded in different ways and used different vehicles but they all watched their risk, calculated proper position sizing techniques and understood their system’s expectancy.

Money management, also termed as risk management is a major part of the holy grail of investing, NOT THE SYSTEM! Novice investors will eventually understand this after many years of trading (some quicker than others).

So, if someone ever tells you that their “system” is better than yours, turn away and run and run fast because they don’t know what the hell they are talking about.

Here are some examples supporting this idea from the Market Wizard books:

  • Michael Marcus turned $30,000 into $80 million trading futures
  • Michael Steinhardt ran a fund that averaged 30% annual return over 21 years trading stocks
  • Tom Baldwin started with $25,000 and eventually traded $2 billion a day in T-bond futures on the floor or in the pit.
  • Paul Tudor Jones ran funds that averaged triple digit returns for five consecutive years trading multiple markets
  • Ed Seykota realized an astounding 250,000% return over 16 years (yes that says 250,000%) managing accounts trading in the futures markets – possibly the best trader of our time
  • Bill Lipschutz traded currencies with a staring account of $12,000 (started out as an architect – very motivating for me since I started the same way).

The list can go on forever but the point remains the same; they all traded different markets with unique systems from different locations (the floor, an office or their home in the mountains) but they all had one major factor in common: money management and risk management.

Just about every market wizard refers to position sizing as a major part of the “holy grail” of trading. Van Tharp (also featured in Market Wizards) coined the phase in the first edition of his book but he only realized that money management was the holy grail after studying and speaking with hundreds, if not thousands of very successful traders. Tharp’s Book, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, is a must read if you would like to understand position sizing and expectancy and learn more about understanding “you”.

The Holy Grail of Trading:
Understanding you and combining that with sound money management rules. Conquer these two entities and you will be successful beyond your wildest dreams!

Point and Figure Exercise – HANS

Point and figure charts are one of the great tools many technical traders overlook. I have followed them since I was 15 years old due to my father’s love for the technique. He would plot hundreds of charts each year by hand in a graph book prior to computers in the 1970’s and 1980’s. He taught me about the charts and the key support and resistance areas to look for when scanning for opportunities. I found this old case study I did in 2005 and thought it would serve as a perfect example of the power of point and figure charts.

The chart was sounding a buy on 5/4/05 even though the stock had already moved from $20 to $60. Would you have bough? I did as did many MSW members that e-mailed me. See the updated chart below to see what HANS went on to accomplish.

For today’s exercise, please understand that I didn’t highlight every single breakout on the P&F as that would have cluttered the Hansen Natural (HANS) chart. However, I did highlight the obvious, stronger breakouts that were confirming this stock’s strength time and time again. No one should have missed HANS in 2004 and 2005 if you were trading this chart along with basic price and volume.

Follow along with the legend below and start to learn about the world of point and figure charts. I bet you won’t stop using them once you learn the benefits and accuracy that they can add to your more traditional technical analysis tools.

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Please note that this chart was originally featured as a case study for MSW back in May 2005 when HANS was trading at $64.09 (pre-splits).

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Don’t be Greedy

I have talked numerous times about the market moving 30% higher than it was last year and how this is a warning of a pending correction in the near future.

I want you to understand that I can’t pick a top and I don’t know when a top will occur but be prepared. That’s all I can do to help my readers.

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With that said, I am starting to read some very cocky blogs that are posting up their “amazing” winning stock “picks” over the past few months. This is fine as I too have posted my best trades and stock selections from 2006 and 2007 but I understand the difference between success and some market luck.

I tend to agree with Howard Lindzon’s post today, GREED on Wallstrip…A Parody of A Few Good Men, as he states:
“The main thing is don’t get caught up in the hysteria of great markets. You are not that smart. The markets are making you money.”

I completely agree with his statement and always repeat the cliché:
“Don’t confuse brains with a bull market”

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The market is good; it has been trending higher for months and everyone should be making money. If you are not, something is very wrong with your system, your approach or your mental makeup towards trading.

Whatever your portfolio has done, understand that the market should get most of the credit for your recent gains and your emotions need to eliminate the sense of superiority and greed. I can’t stress enough how you must protect your profits when the general market is up 30% over its levels from last year. Set hard physical stops and don’t chase extended stocks even if they have excellent fundamental and technical characteristics. I am currently having this struggle with Shutterfly (SFLY). I missed the ideal risk-to-reward setup so I must let it go. I am not going to post a case study either, unless it sets up another ideal entry. Don’t chase extended stocks, especially at this phase of an up-trend.

A couple Jesse Livermore quotes:
“There is nothing more important than your emotional balance”
“But careful timing is essential…impatience is costly”

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With that said, I know my profits in stocks such as MA, BIDU and EDU have a lot to do with the overall market gains, not my intellect.