Start Here: Top 20 Posts

I went back and tried to pick out the best 20 posts that new readers can start with when coming to this website. I will be permanently placing them at the top right sidebar.

Top 20 chrisperruna.com Posts

Let me know if I am missed an article that you believe should be on this list.

Lessons Learned after 25 Years of Trading

We must understand that investing is NOT about winning and losing, it’s always about the bottom line or net result. Once an investor accepts this statement as truth, they will see their bottom line grow. It took me several years to finally believe this statement and train my emotions to also believe it. As humans, society trains us to win at everything and this cripples the potential success of most novice investors and seasoned investors alike.

I have an article to share that I read about 3 years ago.

Lessons Learned after 25 Years of Trading
By: Thomas N. Bulkowski

NOTE: Bulkowski refers to two charts in this article but I do not have the images to upload here. The original article was published in the September 2005 edition of SFO Magazine, a publication about Stocks, Futures & Options.

Profits lost can be lessons learned. Eight simple lessons taught by the greatest teacher of all – experience.
Trading stocks doesn’t require a college degree. A trader’s education may begin at a bookstore or be handed down from relatives. Even before I earned my driver’s license, I became interested in stocks. After college, I contacted two dozen investment firms and reviewed their prospectuses for my first investment: a money market fund. I paper traded stocks for four years before I bought my first one, mostly because I didn’t have the bucks to invest, but also because the riskiest investment my parents ever made was in a U.S. savings bond. The result was worth the wait as I made 88 percent on that first stock. Over the years, I learned a number of lessons worth sharing, and although simply reading them cannot prepare a trader for the profits and losses and the stress of placing trades, it’s certainly a start.

Half of All Trades Will Fail
This surprises most beginning traders. My lifetime win/loss record is 49 percent, and it falls in the 40-percent to 60-percent range that many professional traders are rumored to maintain. How often a trader wins or loses is less important than how much they win. If a trader makes a million dollars in one trade and loses $10,000 in each of ten trades, he still has $900,000 to play with despite a win/loss percentage of just nine percent.

Use Stops to Limit Losses
If half of all trades fail, then a trader needs to know how to limit losses and maximize gains. One easy way to do that is to use a stop-loss order. . I bought 400 shares of Linens ‘N Things at 31.75 after the earnings announcement caused the price to gap up, forming what I call an earnings flag – a generic term for a price pause after an earnings announcement. I sold at 35.20 when price pierced an up-sloping trendline drawn beneath the valleys, confirmed by other technical indicators I follow and a downward turn in the general market. I made $1,350 in a month – more than ten percent on the trade.

As price climbed, I raised my stop from 28 to 30.84, to 32.13 and finally to 33.23. Notice how the numbers are oddball ones, not 31, 32 or 33.25. I don’t use round numbers, as they are common support or resistance zones. I place my stops below the support zones, trying to give price every opportunity to move higher.

When price climbed above the prior peak and made a new high, I raised the stop to a few cents below the nearby valley. Peaks and valleys are places where price is likely to find support, so they make handy stop-loss locations.

Notice how price formed a second peak at 36 and change – a double top – before sliding down to 24. Holding onto this stock and riding price lower would have been a costly mistake. That’s why stops are so important.

Scenario Trading: Ignore News
I read the business press daily but don’t pay much attention to trends they see forming. I remember a columnist in a weekly news publication touting that gold was a buy. Once a month, he’d quote a different expert who said the price of gold had bottomed and now was the time to buy. Gold continued down. A full two years later, his prognostication finally came true. Gold bottomed. Anyone buying gold stocks during his bullish buy signals would be choking on the metal.

Scenario trading is believing the sound bites and trading on them. The times I have invested in a scenario, I find myself so confident of the analysis that I invariably lose big, taking losses that are 15 percent or higher instead of the usual five to ten percent. As price drops, I average down (buy more at a lower price), compounding the loss. Averaging down is a wonderful technique for buy-and-hold investors willing to wait years for a stock to recover, but it leads to large losses for traders. Don’t average down, and don’t believe the scenarios spun by the news outlets. The purchase may be near the peak, or from a portfolio manager who is dumping his shares.

Let Profits Run
Want to make a bundle in the stock market? Don’t trade. If a trader uses the weekly scale for signals, he will make more money per trade than if he uses the daily scale. If a trader uses the daily scale, he’ll make more money per trade than if he trades intraday. As the trading frequency increases, the per-trade profit decreases. This makes intuitive sense. A stock can double in a year, but a trader would be hard pressed to double his money in one intraday trade.

Day trading allows a trader to make small amounts of money numerous times in one day. Position trading allows a trader to make a larger amount of money, but it may take days, weeks or even months to achieve the results.

I’m not knocking day trading. What I am suggesting is that a trader should let profits run. Don’t be so quick to sell. Whether day trading, position trading or buying and holding, there will come a time when it will be wise to sell. Wait for it. Follow a few stocks, and get a feel for how they move. Learn to predict significant price turns.

**I am having some trouble loading the rest of this article so stay tuned as I try to get this fixed***

WordPress 2.3.3 is acting very wierd over the past few days as i am having trouble saving drafts. Any ideas?

Focus on the Decisions!

Take the time to visit the blog article, The Key to Breaking Trading Slumps, by Dr. Brett Steenbarger as he expands on my recent post about Focus on Decisions, Not Outcomes

Dr. Steenbarger also suggests an idea that I think is wonderful for all bloggers and in particular, financial and stock bloggers.

I’m interested in using posts to initiate some cross-blog discussions of issues: sometimes to agree and elaborate, sometimes to respectfully disagree and offer alternatives. If you’re a financial blogger taking a reasoned stand on an issue or taking the time to elaborate a point of importance to traders, by all means send me your URL and I’ll do my best to include your work in a discussion post.

Here are a few words of expansion by Dr. Brett based on the advice I offer in my original post:

This advice is spot on. Performance anxiety occurs when we become so concerned with the outcome of a performance that our worries interfere with the process of performing. Who hasn’t had the experience of fretting over making a perfect entry, only to have the market make its move without you on board? Or seeing a market move away from your entry point and telling yourself you won’t “chase” the market, only to see it make the extended move you expected all along? Those are manifestations of performance anxiety.

Many new readers have started to visit chrisperruna.com over the past month so for those of you not familiar, Dr. Brett Steenbarger has a must read blog and a couple of trading books published by Wiley:

Author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003) and Enhancing Trader Performance (Wiley, 2006) with an interest in using historical patterns in markets to find a trading edge. He is also interested in performance enhancement among traders, drawing upon research from expert performers in various fields.

Trading Mistakes: Avoid at all Costs

Traders are human and we all make mistakes. However, successful traders learn from their mistakes and capitalize from their experience using their next opportunity. Many of the items listed below are obvious but are not known by novice investors and can be forgotten by experienced traders.

Common Mistakes to Avoid while Trading:

  • Failure to cut losses: Pride, ego, or stubbornness prevents the trader from selling.
  • Not knowing “how much” to trade on each position: Overtrading positions can kill your account and take you out for good (risk of ruin). (Learn to position size)
  • Average down in price: Placing good money after bad is a loser’s game.
  • Listening to rumors: Forget the talking heads, rumors and tips as they are nothing but garbage and a sure way to substantial losses
  • Lack of patience: It takes years to master trading as an advanced skill; even then, you are never done learning or adapting
  • Not knowing when to sell: Determine your price objectives and risk-to-reward ratios prior to entering the trade; never allow emotions to make this decision.
  • Buying 52-week lows: Don’t be afraid to buy stocks making new highs. The garbage sits at the bottom along with weakness and downward momentum. Buy strength and the momentum moving higher.
  • Pure Fundamentalist: Technical analysis is a must! Use candlestick charts that show the price, volume and major moving averages – this is all you need, don’t complicate the process.
  • Making trading decisions based on taxes: Never buy or sell based on taxes alone.
  • Buying based on dividends: Don’t buy based solely on dividends; most growth stocks will never give out dividends
  • Buying familiar names: Yesterday’s leaders are not likely to be tomorrow’s stars. Look for solid new companies with great earnings, sales and a product in demand. Don’t buy a stock based on a popular household name.
  • Lack of action: Be able to move on a dime. Time is money, don’t procrastinate or hope for something that may never happen.
  • Lack of Consistency: Develop a method suited to your personality; stick to it and don’t trade blindly.
  • Emotions: CONTROL EMOTIONS – RULES ELIMINATE EMOTIONS!

The secret to winning big in the market is not to be right all the time but to lose the least amount of money possible when you are wrong. As long as you win larger than you lose, you will become a consistent winner at the end of each year.

Focus on Decisions, Not Outcomes

Six Secrets of Successful Bettors: Winning Insights into Playing the Horses, a book I randomly stumbled upon while walking through Barnes and Noble this weekend. Now, I haven’t read the book and probably won’t but the table of contents read like it was coming from the trading world (the two entities are very similar when run like a business). The six secrets discussed along with the titles of the chapters would be perfectly sufficient for an author writing a new book on trading.

The six secrets are:

  • Act as an entrepreneur not a gambler
  • Make the best use of available resources
  • Only bet when there is a significant edge
  • Manage bankroll effectively to maximize advantage
  • Know how to handicap yourself using effective record-keeping
  • Effectively handle emotions as well as money

Chapter Titles:

  • Chapter 1 – A Hard Way to Make An Easy Living
  • Chapter 2 – The Information Edge
  • Chapter 3 – The Never-Ending Quest for Value
  • Chapter 4 – If I Only Knew How to Bet…
  • Chapter 5 – Woulda… Coulda… Shoulda… Doesn’t Get it Done
  • Chapter 6 – It’s One Long Game
  • Chapter 7 – The Road Ahead: Issues Facing the Game

Charter six, It’s One Long Game, started with the title phrase of this blog post:
Focus on Decisions, Not Outcomes.

I quickly reminded myself how true this is when trading as too many investors focus on the short term results or the money won and lost in each trade rather than the net result.

The idea of the game is to make the right choices and understand that some of those choices will turn out to be losers. Losers are part of the game and must not affect you emotionally as long as the decision was correct. You must study, analyze and focus on your decisions, not on the amount of money won or lost on each individual trade. As long as your decisions are correct and consistent, you will be a winner over the long term.

Chapter six has been appropriately titled to translate to the trading world:
It’s One Long Game – GET USED TO IT!

On another note, I also started to read a book titled The Wolf of Wall Street while at Barnes and Noble and it had an interesting start but turned into a complete story about a scum bag from the late 1980’s and early 1990’s. I can only imagine what’s going on in the sleazy Hedge Funds of today. I put it down after I realized the guy was only interested in talking about Quaaludes, cocaine and ridiculous drinking. He scammed people out of tens of millions of dollars, cheated on multiple wives, admits he lied for a living and went to prison (he sounds very proud of the accomplishments mentioned). I feel bad for his children. He was in it for the short game – get rich quick! Loser is all I can say.