Is Shanghai a Nasdaq Déjà vu

The rise of NASDAQ in the late 1990’s has been compared to the rise of the Dow of the late 1920’s. Chart overlays are amazingly similar.

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Image from BullandBearWise.com

Well, the current two year rise of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index looks remarkably similar to the rise of the NASDAQ of the late 1990’s and the charts below explain better than I can!

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The NASDAQ rose from 1,250 to 5,132 from March 1997 to March 2000: 310% gain!
The Shanghai Stock Exchange has moved from 998.23 in June 2005 to 5,552.30 today (10/2/07): 456% gain!

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As you can see, the blue line of the late 1990’s NASDAQ has moved meticulously with the Shanghai Index of today.

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Will the Shanghai Stock Exchange end up with the same result as the NASDAQ of the late 1990’s. As you can see, the NASDAQ went from 1,250 to 5,132 back down to 1,192 (all within a five year period).

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This won’t happen overnight but human nature always repeats so expect a huge decline in the Shanghai Stock Exchange within the next several years.

1929, 1999, 2007, etc…

“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes” – Jesse Livermore.

“The price pattern reminds you that every movement of importance is but a repetition of similar price movements, that just as soon as you familiarize yourself with the actions of the past, you will be able to anticipate and act correctly and profitably upon forthcoming movements” – Jesse Livermore

“All through time, people have basically acted and re-acted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope – that is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis” – Jesse Livermore

Is SSRX the Next JRJC

3S Bio Inc. (SSRX) was up more than 15% on volume 1,500% larger than the 50-day average. The volume was 15 times greater than the average after a large volume boost yesterday as noted by Trading Goddess.

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China Finance Online Co. Inc. (JRJC) has blasted higher by 320% over the past month on tremendous volume. No, I didn’t own it!

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I wouldn’t have noticed SSRX either except for a quick highlight on a few blogs I read and a modified research screen I ran this afternoon. The overall daily volume in SSRX is slightly lower than the parameters I typically search.

In any event, I know about it now and have a decision to make: would I like to join this dangerous party. A run to $30 is not out of the question based on the recent infatuation with Chinese stocks (similar to our tech stocks of the late 1990’s).

I will look to grab a small position in the AM tomorrow (keep my exposure low due to a lack of an ideal risk/reward setup).

China Super Stars

BIDU, Baidu.com, Added on 4/25/07 at $103.50, +190%

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MR, Mindray Medical, Added on 1/30/07 at $24.95, +78%

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EDU, New Oriental Education, Added on 2/6/07 at $36.93, +75%

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JASO, JA Solar Holdings, Added on 6/13/07 at $24.55, +90%

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PTR, Petrochina Co., Added on 2/5/07 at $123.38, +54%

  • Digging for PetroChina (PTR)
  • “The stock is currently forming a consolidation pattern above the 200-d moving average, similar to the support it received three times over the past two years (see the chart). If the stock can maintain support, the current trading range will become the next buying opportunity. The recent declines were logged in as distribution but the stock was also catching support during those down-weeks.”

    100207_ptr_wkly.png

    Solar Super Stars

    I highlighted a group of solar sister stocks on September 11, 2007 during a typical daily screen. Many analysts and stock bloggers, such as Madstocks, have been doing the same since this is the hot trending group. You have two choices: Join the party or watch it happen!

    100107_jaso_wkly.png

    All seven solar stocks (SPWR, FDG, YGE, JASO, ANR, FSLR, LDK) have moved higher with my original Chinese solar buy, JASO, leading the charge over the longer term. JA Solar Holdings (JASO) peaked with a 90% gain in three months and is now up more than 85% since my June coverage.

    100107_fslr_wkly.png

    More recently, First Solar Inc. (FSLR) has blasted higher, reaching new highs with a 26% gain over the past three weeks. I highlighted it on the 9/11 Daily Screen and had this to say:

    FSLR – 100.42, the stock is consolidating after the super run from $20 to $119 over the past nine months. FSLR is related to LDK in this category.

    LDK Solar Co. (LDK) had a peak gain of 40% during the month of September and has been making new highs since its debut for four consecutive months. Here’s what I had to say a few weeks back:

    LDK – 58.13, the stock is past all ideal entry points but is one to keep any eye on based on the excellent up-trending strength. The ideal entry would be a pullback to the 50-d m.a. A shorter term entry could be on a slight pullback near $50. This is one to watch for a future $60-$100 run.

    100107_ldk_wkly.png

    The group is moving higher and I am no longer an entry level buyer into these sister stocks. You could add shares on pullbacks but I won’t be joining. I own what I need to own and will only take profits when necessary. Ride the trend. If you missed it, wait for the next train to arrive.

    I’ll update and cover the China trend tomorrow, along with a fresh daily screen!

    [Read more…]

    Late Buy Opportunities

    The four stocks highlighted today are all trading slightly above their 200-day moving average after making some type of a correction over the past couple of months. I call them late opportunities because they were correcting when the majority of the market leaders were making new highs. This type of action could allow us to label them as laggards but their overall weekly charts would suggest otherwise.

    They have all managed to trade above their long term 200-d moving average while showing us a history of success. It may be my belief and your belief that the market is near a top but do we really know when the market will officially top and start to trend lower.

    I don’t think so!

    So, take the trades since they have ideal risk-to-reward setups. What is the worst that can happen? You sell for a small loss. Big deal because this has been one profitable year so take the trade! These stocks aren’t the market leaders but you may be able to squeeze some profits out of the current moving average setups. We’ll call them lazy summer buys.

    AllianceBernstein (AB) was one of the more consistent performing stocks on the MSW Index prior to me shutting down the index in March. The stock was screened heavily last summer and I started coverage on the 29th of July, 2006 at $66.90. The stock gained as much as 40% while on the index but has recently traded slightly downward as it makes a correction towards the 200-d m.a. It tested the line last summer and that is when I saw an ideal buying opportunity so I am now looking for a similar situation. It held the long term moving average as support last week so I would not have a problem taking a position.

    (AB) Potential Trade Set-up:
    Ideal Entry: $84 to $86 (currently $90.14)
    Risk is set at 1.0% maximum of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
    Stop Loss is 9% or $82.03
    Number of Shares: 123
    Position Size is $11,112
    Risk is $8.11
    Target is $108
    Risk-to-Reward is 2-to-1

    ***The ideal entry would be near $84 for a risk to reward of 7-to-1. The stop loss would be 3% or $81.48 with a stop of $2.52.

    070907_ab_wkly.png

    Rochester Medical (ROCM) has had one heck of a year as it blasted higher from $7.50 to as high as $29 in six months of time. Since the peak, the stock has corrected by 50% over the past two months and is now trading with a suspicious quietness above the 200-d moving average. Is there some type of news that will be released that will propel this stock higher? I don’t know but the trade setup is ideal so take it. Something may be going on behind the scenes so take the nice risk-to-reward setup.

    (ROCM) Potential Trade Set-up:
    Ideal Entry: $15 (currently $15.14)
    Risk is set at 1.0% maximum of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
    Stop Loss is 5% or $14.25
    Number of Shares: 1,333
    Position Size is $20,000
    Risk is $0.75
    Target is $21
    Risk-to-Reward is 8-to-1

    070907_rocm_wkly.png

    Click through to see the ideal trade setups for CHINA and GMKT:
    [Read more…]