Friday Morning Education (EDU)

EDU was up 10.76% or $8.14 to $83.79 on volume 178% larger than the 50-day average. The stock is now up 127% since its debut on the blog on February 6, 2007 at $36.93.

I consider New Oriental Education (EDU) one of the most consistent finds in 2007 as the up-trend has been so smooth while continuously making new all-time highs.

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The stock was up due to coverage initiated by William Blair (they rated the stock outperform).

The stock still has room to grow but listening and waiting for many of the talking heads of Wall Street (to give their analysis) will usually get you to the party LATE!

Upgrade and Downgrade History:
19-Oct-07: William Blair; Initiated Outperform
21-Aug-07: Jefferies & Co.; Initiated Hold
14-Jun-07 Susquehanna Financial; Initiated Positive
7-Jun-07 Brean Murray; Initiated Buy
7-Mar-07 CIBC Wrld Mkts; Upgrade Sector Perform to Sector Outperform
21-Nov-06 CIBC Wrld Mkts; Initiated Sector Perform
19-Oct-06 Piper Jaffray; Initiated Market Perform

I give nice props to CIBC World Markets as they first covered the stock last November (near $30) at Market Perform and then upgraded the stock in March as it traded in the $30-range to Sector Outperform. Piper Jaffray also gets props for being the first firm to initiate coverage (long before I was covering the stock).

As for William Blair, where have you been for the past 8-12 months?

EDU, New Oriental Education, Added on 2/6/07 at $36.93, +127%

JASO Cup with Handle Breakout

I highlighted the ideal cup with handle scenario on the JA Solar Holdings (JASO) weekly chart on October 11, 2007 in a post titled Keep Riding the IPOs

JASO – 42.93, the stock has formed a perfect cup with handle base with a pivot point of $48.67. A spread triple top breakout buy exists on a move above $49.

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The stock cleared the pivot point of $48.67 on above average volume and then went on to trigger the ascending triple top breakout on Tuesday with a move into the $50 range. The stock is now up more than 131% in four months and has been covered at least 12 times on the blog during that span.

Below are a few of the more notable mentions but you can always do a search for the symbol JASO on the upper right corner on every page. The search feature is very accurate on my blog.

JASO, JA Solar Holdings, Added on 6/13/07 at $24.55, +131%

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Let’s take a look at the latest institutional numbers to see where this stock may be headed based on recent buys and sells.

Institutional Analysis:
Held by Institutions: 133
Money Market: 75
Mutual Fund: 57
Other: 1

Shares Held: 16.85 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 15.71 mil

Shares Bought: 5.90 mil
Shares Sold: 4.76 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $274.5 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $221.5 mil

Top Institutional holders; Shares Held:
Janus Capital Management, LLC; 2,231,630
Janus Research Fund; 1,685,728
Miura Global Management, LLC; 1,545,000
Legg Mason Inc.; 557,812
Ardsley Advisory Partners; 538,000

The Real PTR Climax Run?

I was early in September by trying to locate a climax run in PTR in this post:
Petrochina (PTR) Climax Top?

However, the HUGE volume on the latest push to new highs clearly indicates something is going on.

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As I mentioned in the last post, a climax top is where the stock has advanced for many months and suddenly races up for one or two weeks much faster than any prior one-or two-week period or since the beginning of the stock’s long move up.

And the stock does this on the largest volume of the run (something that didn’t qualify in my September post at $181). PTR finally has the extreme run with large amounts of accompanying volume. I do advise selling into this incredible strength, especially since Warren Buffett has sold most if not all of his holdings in Petrochina as documented in the SEC filings.

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It Pays to Learn English

The young superstar, EDU, was up 12.56% Monday on volume 368% larger than average as it closed at a new all-time high. Below are the links to the extended coverage I have given EDU over the past ten months.

Yes, I did sell a portion of my shares early but the stock has become a trending superstar. The weekly chart is a perfect example of making higher highs and higher lows without violating any major trend lines.

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The institutional holdings and the potential of their products and services is what truly caught my interest. The institutional holdings are still looking solid but not as good as they looked back in February. And yes, the bull in the Chinese market helped!

EDU, New Oriental Education, Added on 2/6/07 at $36.93, +104%

Here are some of the comments I made during my initial coverage:

Not a lot of data exists for the young Chinese stock so I wanted to take the time to focus on institutional holdings and the amount of shares that have been accumulated so far (the first reporting period). As you can see below, the majority of new institutional investors loaded up over the past couple of months and I suspect that it all started in November when volume surged and the price accelerated from $26 to $33.

I like when I see $227 million worth of shares purchased and 93 new institutional holders versus only $770 thousand worth of shares sold. This shows me major support and interest by the so called “smart-money”. The company sounds interesting and looks to have an excellent market (a description is below).

Held by Institutions: 13.10%
Money Market: 45 (42 new positions)
Mutual Fund: 51 (50 new positions)
Other: 1 (1 new position)

Shares Bought last Period: 6,313,271
Shares Sold last Period: 22,600
Value of Shares Bought: $227,073,203
Value of Shares Sold: $770,637

Current Institutional Holdings:
Held by Institutions: 174
Money Market: 91 (25 new positions)
Mutual Fund: 78 (23 new positions)
Other: 5 (2 new positions)

Shares Held: 23.480 mil
Shares Held Previous Period: 19.552 mil

Shares Bought: 7.12 mil
Shares Sold: 3.19 mil
Value of Shares Bought: $447.5 mil
Value of Shares Sold: $200.7 mil

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About New Oriental
New Oriental is the largest provider of private educational services in China based on the number of program offerings, total student enrollments and geographic presence. New Oriental offers a wide range of educational programs, services and products consisting primarily of English and other foreign language training, test preparation courses for major admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the PRC and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, development and distribution of educational content, software and other technology, and online education. New Oriental’s ADSs, each of which represents four common shares, currently trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ”EDU.”

Friday Morning “Chinese” Breakfast

Mike Steinhardt from HEDGEfolios uploaded a great post today Comparing China’s Stock Market to the NASDAQ of the late 1990’s. As you know, I wrote about the technical comparison on Wednesday in my post titled Is Shanghai a Nasdaq Déjà vu

Please understand that we are offering opinions based on fundamental and/or technical data. With that said, you must realize that the market doesn’t care about our own personal opinions and will do what it wants, how it wants, when it wants. So, comment on what you think about what we are presenting (both technical and analytical).

I completely agree with Mike when he says:

“The dangers in comparative analysis are heightened when we only look at the similarities and then extrapolate a similar ending. Instead, we must look at the differences as well and when we do that, we still need to avoid the expectation that the ending will follow previous examples.”

And

“The chart overlay tells one part of the story. Of course, markets are much more complex than just looking at a chart. All the factors I mentioned and many others I have not discussed make the market. The chart is just a composite image of them and by only focusing on a picture we oversimplify everything else that is going on.”

That last sentence is the most important as I would expect readers of this blog to understand that we never try to predict anything and that technical tools are just a portion of your overall system. We as humans do tend to oversimplify markets when plotting them on a chart, forcing our eyes to see repeating patterns (that may not be there).

“I wouldn’t make a new entry into China’s stock market but then again, I have been saying that for over a year – a year in which the SSEC has gone up about 200%.”

I have taken part in the mania with individual stocks in the Chinese market in 2007 but I am becoming skeptical of the sustainability of the current rise. Is this due to my over-analysis of what may happen based on past events? Am I playing games with my own mind by trying to see something that is not there?

Maybe, maybe not! I took a position in my sixth Chinese stock (of 2007) this week and it’s showing a quick profit but I am skeptical as it was a pure spec play. I have a tight stop and I am not leaving much room for disaster in case things start to turn on a dime. As said on Tuesday, I was keeping my exposure low with a smaller than normal position (a very tight R factor).

Maybe the bubble will burst in China, maybe it will deflate slowly and then move even higher; whatever the case, I will take my individual signals while keeping an eye on the bigger picture. Thank you for the analysis Mike, I really appreciate your input.

“Will the chart of the decline mirror the pain we felt on the Nasdaq? I have no clue.”

Neither do I!