A Holiday Gift List

I don’t know about you but I love books, especially books about the stock market. I frequently ride the train from New Jersey into Manhattan (New York) so I am always on the lookout for new and/or interesting material. Any of the books below would make excellent holiday gifts or stocking stuffers.

Enjoy!

Start with these books and then scroll down to view my Stock Market Library:

An Excellent Stock Market Gift List:

Learning about Stocks (Fundamental and Technical Principles):

System Development and Market Psychology:

Great All-around Reads:

All Others:

When to Sell

Insight from the book, When to Sell, by Justin Mamis.

I highly recommend the book to every reader of this blog as I must include it as one of the better books I have ever read on the subject. Details of his selling techniques can be found in the book; today I will only share some of his notable wisdom (things we should all be familiar with but must be reminded about every now and then).

All quotes below taken from the book: When to Sell

  • Why do so few books exist on the subject of “How to Sell”?
    Selling techniques are far more complicated than buying techniques and subject to considerably more emotional pressure, than those of buying.
  • Buying is easy because many signals flash to enter a particular stock or market. However, few moments cry out for selling at precisely the right time and no simple way to lick emotions that hinder cutting the cord.
  • The formidable psychic struggle – to sell or not to sell – somehow invariably produces the wrong decision, selling prematurely when the advance has much further to go, and, having made that mistake often enough to decide it was a mistake, to leap to the other extreme with other holdings and refuse to sell at all after the top has arrived.
  • Stock market analysis is the task of separating real possibilities from mere hopes.
  • Rule One of the professional trader is: When a stock doesn’t do what you expect it to do, sell it.
  • When looking for sells signals: Once a day, once a week, in fact, should be ample when you know what to look for and what to do.
  • It is our expectations, our needs, which keep us from seeing things as they really are, and that includes recognizing that things are not going as we had dreamed they would.
  • With proper discipline and intelligent observation of the information that’s available, you ought to be able to make more money than you lose and in the stock market, that’s the only measure of being right.
  • We’ve been brought up to believe that there is a right and a wrong about everything. But there is no such absolute in the stock market. The only way to win at this game is to be consistent.
  • Well, if there is no perfect time to sell, no absolutely right end-of-the-rainbow moment, the important task is to avoid the wrong time.
  • Typically, the way institutions buy their stock is to try to accumulate it bit by bit. The order on the exchange floor is usually filled over a period of time, as they gather in the desired number of shares while trying to keep the price from leaping until they’re done. But when they do their selling, they are not so patient; having accumulated those thousands of shares, institutions usually want out as soon as the decision to sell is made.
  • The decisive act of selling may turn out, with hindsight, to be a mistake, but the indecisive act of not selling can turn out to be a disaster.
  • One of the single most important distinctions to understand about the market is that you are never buying or selling a company; you are bidding and offering in an auction of its shares.
  • To paraphrase the gambler: If you’ve never lost any money in the market, you’ve never played the game.
  • But what makes selling far more difficult than buying is that tops don’t provide comparable conveniences.
  • Stocks are bought not in fear but in hope. They are typically sold out of fear.

About Justin Mamis:
Justin Mamis independently publishes The Mamis Letter weekly, as well as other opinion products. Quotes from The Mamis Letter have appeared frequently in Barron’s and the Wall Street Journal, and his often heretical and usually grumpy comments have been heard from time to time on CNBC.

After serving as Assistant Director of the NYSE Floor Department, Justin Mamis founded the Professional Tape Reader in 1972, selling it in 1977 when he thought he was going to retire. Getting bored, he returned to New York as an “upstairs” Member-Trader for Phelan, Silver – a NYSE specialist firm – and subsequently spent several not particularly skillful months as an options trader on the AMEX floor, before gradually settling into his role as market advisory letter writer, forecaster, and philosopher on behalf of, in succession: Wertheim & Co., Cowen & Co., Gordon Capital, and Hancock Institutional Equity Services. In that time period, he was regularly elected to the Institutional Investor “All-Star Team” in the categories of Market Timing and Market Technician. Since 1996, Justin has provided his opinions to institutional investors via his independently-owned company, Noah Financial, LLC.

Justin has been a prolific writer in the business and investing arena. The original edition of When to Sell was first published in 1977 (Farrar, Straus & Giroux); it was updated (Third Edition) in 1999 and published by Fraser Publishing (www.fraserpublishing.com). When to Buy was published by Farrar, Straus & Giroux in 1982; a Second Edition was published in 2001 by Fraser. His personal favorite – because it is more philosophical in tone – is The Nature of Risk – Stock Market Survival &. The Meaning of Life (published in 1991 by Addison Wesley, and updated from the original publication by Fraser Publishing in 1999). A self-published (in 1995) collection of “Ten Sermons by a Non-Rabbi” includes a “Stock Market Sermon.”

An American Hedge Fund by Timothy Sykes

An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund
by Timothy Sykes

“…an excellent tell-all story about the truth of setting up, starting and running a Hedge Fund from scratch. A highly entertaining read that should help educate aspiring fund mangers and give them much need guidance to tackle the risks of playing and surviving Wall Street’s fierce game” – Chris Perruna

In addition to the quote I provided for Tim’s blog, I felt the book was highly entertaining and a great read. It flowed and I easily finished it in two sittings and was always eager to start another chapter. I learned several things by reading the book as Tim helped me confirm even further that I probably don’t want to trade as a small fund manager on Wall Street.

I first learned about Tim while watching Wall Street Warriors on the HD channel MOJO. The show was good enough to catch my attention enough to watch the entire series and really get into the stories of each character. Tim went on to write this book and was kind enough to send me an advance copy last summer.

Too many books are boring or lack the meat to grab my attention for 200 or more pages. Tim did a great job at telling his story and keeping the reader interested from chapter to chapter.

An American Hedge Fund is an autobiography about Tim’s venture of trading throughout college and then ultimately forming his own hedge fund after he graduated. He gets into great detail of trading during his college years and then details his experiences within the dark halls and exclusive clubs of the Wall Street money game.

I recommend the book to anyone interested in starting their own private hedge fund or to anyone that would like to hear the story of a college kid that turned $12,415 into $1.65 million in three to four short years. (I can’t say I have made that much to date)

I do have a few cons about the book
(for the readers of this specific, trend trading blog):

Tim was predominately a short trader in college and within his fund. He didn’t exclusively trade short but that was his bread and butter. I have traded short and have covered the topic several times on this blog but my bread and butter are trends on the long side.

Tim focused on trading small penny stocks, which I honestly feel are crap, but that is just my opinion. Regardless of what Tim traded, he was successful and that is the most important moral of the story.

Understand what he was trading and how he did it. I believe Tim is focusing more on money management and a psychological approach as he tries to repeat the feat in his latest endeavor. If I had one suggestion, I would tell Tim to forget about the $12,000 start and get properly capitalized and trade using sound position sizing and expectancy tactics:

111607_tim.jpg

TIM – Transparent Investment Management

I’m going back to my Bar Mitzvah Gift Money roots of $12,415 and opening an account with a discount online broker, intent on repeating my feat of turning this small sum into $1.65 million. This time around, my goals are not solely monetary, but to show everyone the process, the successes and failures and the hard work that goes into accomplishing such a feat.

Each night, I will post all my thoughts, investment ideas and trade details on my website TimothySykes.com. This won’t be some highly technical trading talk BS and it certainly won’t be boring – c’mon you know me better than that!

Final Word:
I do recommend the book to anyone that enjoys stories about Wall Street and trading. I can’t honestly say it is the next Reminiscences of a Stock Operator but it is much better than some of the other trash I see on the shelves of Barnes and Noble or Amazon.

I wish Tim the best of success during his current journey of duplicating his trading success from 1999-2002. Please take the time to visit his latest blog and follow along with the success of TIM:
TimothySykes.com

Trader Vic 1-2-3 Setup?

Clean Harbors (CLHB) looks to be setting up a 1-2-3 pattern as described in the book Methods of a Wall Street Master by Victor Sperandeo.

As you can see:

  • CLHB broke the up-trend after establishing a new 52-week high.
  • From there, it consolidated and formed what is referred to as the minor sell-off.
  • Prices stared to rise but failed to make another new high. This test of the previous high failed near point number 2.
  • A failure to make a new high is usually (not always) a signal that the trend is about to change.
  • Finally, we reach point number 3 where prices went below the previous short term minor sell-off

However, prices didn’t continue to fall below this area so the position would still be established from the original penetration point. New investors should be looking for another penetration of the prior minor sell-off.

092607_clhb_wkly.png

In addition to the 1-2-3 setup, the stock has also allowed it’s 10-week moving average to cross below the 30-week moving average which typically signals a change in trend when both lines are starting to point down.

Potential Trade Set-up:
Ideal Entry (short position): $45.00 (right now below the moving averages)
Risk is set at 1.0% maximum of total portfolio or $1,000 of $100k
Stop Loss is 6% or $47.70 (above moving averages)
Number of Shares: 370
Position Size is $16,650
Risk is $2.70
Target is $40 or less
Reward-to-Risk is about 2-to-1 (the target is a guess but I prefer at least a 3-to-1)

Victor Sperandeo says this about the 1-2-3 setup:

At the point where all three of these events have occurred graphically, there exists the equivalent of a Dow Theory confirmation of a trend change. Either of the first two conditions alone is evidence of a probable change in trend. Two out of three increases the probability of a change in trend. And three out of three defines a change in trend.

Take a look at the picture I scanned from Sperandeo’s book on page 76:

092607_123_book.png

So, I’ll take the trade and see what happens. It can go up and whipsaw me out of the position but I have my stop and risk established so it won’t hurt the overall portfolio.

This is a game of odds with developed expectancies so take the trades and follow the rules.

CRA$HMAKER: A Federal Affaire

Victor Sperandeo is one of the most respected figures to ever walk among the giants of Wall Street. “Trader Vic” is the man Barron’s dubbed “the ultimate Wall Street pro”.

I recently learned of a book he wrote in 2000 titled Crashmaker (Cra$hmaker). It seems to be a deeply thought-out and well researched novel in two separate volumes that spans almost 1,600 pages. I am wondering if anyone has ever read the book?

CRA$HMAKER: A Federal Affaire
by Victor Sperandeo & Alvaro Almeida
Two Volumes— Preface plus 1,572 pages— Hardbound
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 99-93805
ISBN: 0-9671759-0-9
official website: www.crashmaker.com

“A Hidden Agenda”

“…The Fed’s real purpose— its hidden agenda— is to facilitate government spending through inflation. To avoid imposing politically intolerable levels of taxation to pay for the spending that returns them to office election after election, politicians rely on the Fed to confiscate wealth from the public through inflation. Inflation’s a hidden tax, and lessens the cost of borrowing by enabling the government to pay its debts in depreciated currency.”

CRA$HMAKER is more than an exciting story about an engineered crash of the Federal Reserve System and the markets that could actually happen. It also offers a stimulating education in the philosophy and practice of limited, constitutional government, and in the free-market economics of money and banking.

You may love what you read in CRA$HMAKER— or hate it— but when you are finished you will understand contemporary American government, and the forces behind it, as never before. And you will know why America is no longer “the land of the free”, who is responsible, and what needs to be done before Americans forfeit forever the “Blessings of Liberty” that the Founding Fathers bequeathed to them in the Constitution of 1787.

Please leave a comment on the blog or send me an e-mail if you have read the book because I am always interested in what Mr. Sperandeo has to say about economics and the market in general.