On Vacation until Sunday April 6

I will be taking off the next two weeks as I travel to the the Riviera Maya.
My vacation has begun if you haven’t already noticed – sorry for the delay in getting this information out.

Please take the time to check out some of my most popular and informative blog articles from the past 12-15 months (below).
I also recommend that you select a book from my “best of” library and read it while I am away (scroll down on this page).

Regular posting will return on Monday, April 7, 2008

I will be reading Microtrends and The Art of War while relaxing on the beach.

A look back at some of high quality educational articles from 2007

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

Top 20 chrisperruna.com Posts

Start with these books and then scroll down to view my Stock Market Library:

An Excellent Stock Market Gift List:

Learning about Stocks (Fundamental and Technical Principles):

System Development and Market Psychology:

Great All-around Reads:

All Others:

10-Week Crossing Below 30-Week Moving Average

In keeping with last night’s theme, I will highlight five stocks that are trending downward on above average volume after reaching 52-week highs within the past six months.

Tonight’s stock charts show a declining 10-week moving average that is now trading below the 30-week moving average. The 30-week moving average is just starting to point downward in most of these charts. Trader Vic wrote in his book:

  • “When the 10-week moving average crosses the 30-week moving average and the slope of both average is down, this comprises a sell signal, provided prices are below both moving average line”
  • “Of course, as with all technical observations, these observations are never right 100% of the time.”
  • “The biggest mistake anyone can make in using moving averages, or any technical observation for that matter, is to fall in love with it”

With that said, I will admit that I love using the 10-week/30-week indicator when looking for longer term trend changes and buy/sell signals.

030508_deck_wkly.png

030508_gme_wkly.png

Tonight’s stocks include:
DECK – 105.23 – hat tip to Mike in comments
GME – 45.23
CETV – 84.80
YZC – 76.46
ALXN – 59.20

[Read more…]

How to Trade in Stocks by Jesse Livermore

I am not sure what the market is going to do to open the week so instead of posting a new stock screen, I’ll give it a day and entertain with a few quotes from Jesse Livermore’s book How to Trade in Stocks (one of my favorites, originally written in 1940). Pay particular attention to the first quote!

  • “Successful traders always follow the line of least resistance – follow the trend – the trend is your friend”
  • “Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes”
  • “Just because a stock is selling at a high price does not mean it won’t go higher”
  • “It cannot be said too often that in speculation and investment, success comes only to those who work for it”
  • “I have long since learned, as all should learn, not to make excuses when wrong. Just admit it and try to profit by it. We all know when we are wrong. The market will tell the speculator when he is wrong, because he is losing money. When he first realizes he is wrong is the time to clear out, take his losses, try to keep smiling, study the record to determine the cause of his error, and await the next big opportunity. It is the net result over a period of time in which he is interested”
  • “But careful timing is essential…impatience is costly”
  • “The price pattern reminds you that every movement of importance is but a repetition of similar price movements, that just as soon as you familiarize yourself with the actions of the past, you will be able to anticipate and act correctly and profitably upon forthcoming movements”
  • “All through time, people have basically acted and re-acted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope – that is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis”
  • “The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, or for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”
  • “Markets are never wrong – opinions often are”
  • “Remember too that it is dangerous to start spreading out all over the market. By this I mean, do not have an “Interest in too many stocks at one time. It is much easier to watch a few than many. I made that mistake years ago and I cost me money”
  • “There is nothing more important than your emotional balance”

Other books related to Jesse Livermore:

30 Major Causes of Failure

The 30 Major Causes of Failure:
How many of these are holding you back?

All text below quoted by Napoleon Hill from the book (list published in 1937):

Life’s greatest tragedy consists of men and women who earnestly try, and fail! The tragedy lies in the overwhelmingly large majority of people who fail, as compared to the few who succeed.

I have had the privilege of analyzing several thousand men and women, 98% of whom were classed as “failures.” There is something radically wrong with a civilization, and a system of education, which permit 98% of the people to go through life as failures. But I did not write this book for the purpose of moralizing on the rights and wrongs of the world; that would require a book a hundred times the size of this one.

My analysis work proved that there are thirty major reasons for failure, and thirteen major principles through which people accumulate fortunes. In this book, a description of the thirty major causes of failure will be given. As you go over the list, check yourself by it, point by point, for the purpose of discovering how many of these causes-of-failure stand between you and success. (This can and does apply to trading – trading for a living is a business)

  1. UNFAVORABLE HEREDITARY BACKGROUND. There is but little, if anything, which can be done for people who are born with a deficiency in brain power. This philosophy offers but one method of bridging this weakness—through the aid of the Master Mind. Observe with profit, however, that this is the ONLY one of the thirty causes of failure which may not be easily corrected by any individual. (not sure if I agree with this one, especially at #1)
  2. LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED PURPOSE IN LIFE. There is no hope of success for the person who does not have a central purpose, or definite goal at which to aim. Ninety-eight out of every hundred of those whom I have analyzed, had no such aim. Perhaps this was the…see #3
  3. LACK OF AMBITION TO AIM ABOVE MEDIOCRITY. We offer no hope for the person who is so indifferent as not to want to get ahead in life, and who is not willing to pay the price.
  4. INSUFFICIENT EDUCATION. This is a handicap which may be overcome with comparative ease. Experience has proven that the best-educated people are often those who are known as “self-made,” or self-educated. It takes more than a college degree to make one a person of education. Any person who is educated is one who has learned to get whatever he wants in life without violating the rights of others. Education consists, not so much of knowledge, but of knowledge effectively and persistently APPLIED. Men are paid, not merely for what they know, but more particularly for WHAT THEY DO WITH THAT WHICH THEY KNOW.
  5. LACK OF SELF-DISCIPLINE. Discipline comes through self-control. This means that one must control all negative qualities. Before you can control conditions, you must first control yourself. Self-mastery is the hardest job you will ever tackle. If you do not conquer self, you will be conquered by self. You may see at one and the same time both your best friend and your greatest enemy, by stepping in front of a mirror.
  6. [Read more…]

It Couldn’t Be Done

I’m going to start 2008 by posting a few inspirational and/or success blog entries. These types of exercises clear my mind of the past, force me to focus on the positives and hit the ground running in the New Year. They allow me to build a stronger family, a more successful business life and most relevant to this blog: continue trading successfully!

Enjoy the poem I found in the latest copy of Think and Grow Rich: The Original Version, Restored and Revised, it’s a favorite of Annie Lou Hill (Mrs. Napoleon Hill).

It Couldn’t Be Done
by Edgar Guest, 1941

Somebody said that it couldn’t be done,
But he with a chuckle replied
That “maybe it couldn’t,” but he would be one
Who wouldn’t say so till he’d tried.
So he buckled right in with the trace of a grin
On his face. If he worried he hid it.
He started to sing as he tackled the thing
That couldn’t be done, and he did it.

Somebody scoffed: “Oh, you’ll never do that;
At least no one ever has done it”;
But he took off his coat and he took off his hat,
And the first thing we knew he’d begun it.
With a lift of his chin and a bit of a grin,
Without any doubting or quiddit,
He started to sing as he tackled the thing
That couldn’t be done, and he did it.

There are thousands to tell you it cannot be done,
There are thousands to prophesy failure;
There are thousands to point out to you, one by one,
The dangers that wait to assail you.
But just buckle in with a bit of a grin,
Just take off your coat and go to it;
Just start to sing as you tackle the thing
That “cannot be done,” and you’ll do it.