I figured I would recap my last 100 tweets to those of you that still check into this blog but don’t follow me on twitter. Please, check me out on twitter as I do most of my writing and thoughts over there as the new family life prevents me from writing intense, heavily researched stock blog posts. I am not in the business of writing short crappy blog posts so I focus my time on actionable ideas and education on twitter. I plan to one day return to more consistent writing on the blog. Until that day, follow my tweets to stay in touch with my thoughts on the market (1,200 other people already follow).
If you can take anything away from my recent tweets, focus on the message of the following ten tweets, reference the bold type (they all show caution and skepticism in the market based on the lack of individual leaders). New Highs have been reaching levels not seen in years but they are still far below the levels necessary for a “true bull market”, one that will be sustainable.
1. $V – hit new highs day after day on volume less than half the ave. Gets rocked today on above ave vol. Clear sign of market – told ya! $$8:47 PM Sep 25th from web
3. NASDAQ: 135 NH’s today, the most in 2009 but we had more declining issues than advancers. Still suspect market $$9:13 PM Sep 17th from web
7. Markets near new highs but individual stocks are not making NH’s! Subtle divergence to watch. Adv-Dec is not making NH’ss either $$10:54 PM Sep 14th from web
8. $V – 72.87, another new high, more below ave volume.8:48 PM Sep 14th from web
17. $V – 72.31, hits a 52-wk NH but vol still concerns me. Holding but thoughts of cashing in creeping into mind. Up 30% since March (10 tweets)8:23 PM Sep 10th from web
35. Is the head forming in the market for a Head-and-Shoulders pattern ($SPX & $COMPQ)? It’s early but maybe…Time for bed! $$12:28 AM Aug 30th from web
47. The buy isn’t there yet but the inverse ETF’s can be a nice tool if the market drops, especially NASDAQ: $PSQ, $SH, $DOG, $QID11:39 AM Aug 19th from web
48. $GS – $160.48, has the same short term topping pattern as the NASDAQ on the weekly candlestick charts9:37 PM Aug 18th from web
49. @zaiteku However, the NASDAQ is weak. NH’s weak. Short term topping pattern & triple bottom breakdown. 200d is a nice support level $$9:21 PM Aug 18th from web in reply to zaiteku
56. Confusing market? “Keep cash if enough issues w/ such promise cannot be found or if the investment per issue becomes unwieldy” Loeb $$11:32 AM Aug 15th from web
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See below for the complete list of my most recent tweets (100 total tweets – all dated and reproduced exactly as they appear on twitter).
1. $V – hit new highs day after day on volume less than half the ave. Gets rocked today on above ave vol. Clear sign of market – told ya! $$8:47 PM Sep 25th from web
2. “Play for more than you can afford to lose and you will learn the game.” – Winston Churchill, Nice quote to apply to the market $$7:19 PM Sep 19th from web
3. NASDAQ: 135 NH’s today, the most in 2009 but we had more declining issues than advancers. Still suspect market $$9:13 PM Sep 17th from web
4. NYSE: 354 new highs today, the most since 10/11/2007 when it closed at 383-35. Only 2 NL’s today. 0 days above 300 in 08 $$7:47 PM Sep 16th from web
5. @rbanta Correct, DJIA was at 13,930 on 10/31/07. NL’s topped 600 on NYSE 20 days later. Hit 1,114 NL’s on 1/22/08 $$8:28 PM Sep 15th from web in reply to rbanta
6. Most NH’s on NYSE since October 31, 2007 when we hit 269-60. Today closed at 230-2. The first 200+ day since September 2008 $$8:07 PM Sep 15th from web
7. Markets near new highs but individual stocks are not making NH’s! Subtle divergence to watch. Adv-Dec is not making NH’ss either $$10:54 PM Sep 14th from web
8. $V – 72.87, another new high, more below ave volume.8:48 PM Sep 14th from web
9. NASDAQ Stat Check: 2009, 3 days w/ 100+ NH’s; 2008, 3 days; 2007, 107 days; 2006, 119 days $$9:40 PM Sep 13th from web
10. RT @lhsilva MONEY MANAGEMENT & POSITION SIZING | Investor Central Blogs http://cli.gs/2YpGy9:34 PM Sep 13th from web
11. @Jediphone @upsidetrader: KEN FISCHERS NEW BOOK ON HOW TO SPOT FINANCIAL DISASTERS BEFORE THEY HAPPEN, TNX 4 AFTER THE FACT-> NO VALUE ADDED11:19 AM Sep 13th from web in reply to Jediphone
12. RT @steenbab Which stocks are most overbought: http://rurl.org/1w0a $$1:21 PM Sep 12th from web
13. @upsidetrader $$ Amazing stat,, DOW closes 9605, day before 9/11 attacks in 2001, we also closed at 96058:39 PM Sep 11th from web in reply to upsidetrader
14. @rbl656 Read this book to learn “When to Sell” – I highly recommend! http://bit.ly/1IcRQE $$7:55 AM Sep 11th from web in reply to rbl656
15. @rbl656 I base it on the overall market & the individual action. Going higher on weak volume is a sign to take profits if market is weak $$9:00 PM Sep 10th from web in reply to rbl656
16. NYSE: 179 NH’s, the most since September 19, 2008 (almost 1 year). 107 NH’s for NASDAQ, only 3rd time this year @ 100+ $$8:29 PM Sep 10th from web
17. $V – 72.31, hits a 52-wk NH but vol still concerns me. Holding but thoughts of cashing in creeping into mind. Up 30% since March (10 tweets)8:23 PM Sep 10th from web
18. Top EPS stocks making NH’s on volume 100%+ than 50-d ave: $HITK, $JDAS, $SIG, $TECD, $ININ, $EMS, $DLM (not a buy list, just research) $$8:52 PM Sep 9th from web
19. $HMIN – $28.88, up 48% since 8/4/09 tweet at $19.57. Profit taking time in my opinion, that gap-up at $20 has to fill $$8:41 PM Sep 9th from web
20. RT Excellent @Jediphone @EdgeTrader “This has been a Fed-muscled rally using Permanent Open Market Operations”: http://bit.ly/R8XPn $$8:25 PM Sep 9th from web
21. RT @IBDinvestors The NASDAQ hit a new high Wednesday and volume rose, putting the market back in a confirmed uptrend http://bit.ly/KTMeF8:18 PM Sep 9th from web
22. NYSE: 173 New Highs (1 NL), the 2nd most NH’s in 2009, the 3rd most since 9/19/08. Advancers up 2.6x more than decliners $$8:07 PM Sep 9th from web
23. NYSE: 160 NH’s today, who can tell me the last date with more New Highs? We have now logged twelve 100+ NH days in 2009 $$12:22 AM Sep 9th from web
24. RT @TraderMike Employers’ hiring plans drop to record low (going back to 1962) $$ http://icio.us/tfuwje $$9:12 AM Sep 8th from web
25. Gold Rises to $1,000 an Ounce for First Time in Six Months on Dollar Drop $$9:04 AM Sep 8th from web
26. Our son’s christening was yesterday so I want to invest rather than savings. Dow 30 baby stocks ($JNJ, $WMT, $PG), Index fund. Suggestions?3:08 PM Sep 7th from web
27. **Read the last 2 paragraphs, understand them** RT @IBDeditorials “Envy is the driving force behind socialism.” http://bit.ly/a7kpU2:43 PM Sep 7th from web
28. “Socialism has bankrupted and failed every society, while capitalism has lifted more people out of poverty than any other system.”2:37 PM Sep 7th from web
29. RT Excellent @zaiteku -importance of investment process: http://tinyurl.com/m7wo6w $$12:11 PM Sep 4th from web
30. Excellent charts RT @dvolatility Chart Comparison of Four Bear Markets http://bit.ly/yupOd $$8:54 PM Aug 31st from web
31. $VMW – $36.03, one of the few stocks acting strong with vol support. Up 38% from 4/1 tweet @ $26.12, +20% from 4/8 tweet @ $30.099:19 PM Aug 30th from web
32. EXCELLENT CHART – RT @IBDeditorials History Lesson: Current bank failures not the worst ever – by far. http://bit.ly/461kTd $$10:05 AM Aug 30th from web
33. @timothysykes To add to my 1st response, Phimai Historical Park is in Nakhon Ratchasima. Am I right? One month free?9:54 AM Aug 30th from web in reply to timothysykes
34. @timothysykes You are sitting in front of Phimai historical park9:51 AM Aug 30th from web in reply to timothysykes
35. Is the head forming in the market for a Head-and-Shoulders pattern ($SPX & $COMPQ)? It’s early but maybe…Time for bed! $$12:28 AM Aug 30th from web
36. Stats say stocks are having their best 6-month rally since 1933, +52%. They rose more than 53% from 2/27/33 to 7/17/33 $$9:41 PM Aug 27th from web
37. What are Point and Figure Charts : http://bit.ly/38FvuE $HANS example from ’07 http://bit.ly/PUNVl $$9:41 PM Aug 26th from web
38. $MDAS – $23.11, up 10.42% on vol 286% larger than ave. Tweets 4/23 @ $16.79 +38%, 6/10 @ $17.49 +32% & 7/12 @ $18.26 +27%10:23 PM Aug 25th from web
39. $GS – $164.94, 6 wk flat base consolidation. Triple bottom breakdown would be below $158 on P&F chart. $171 is new high area5:25 PM Aug 25th from web
40. RT @howardlindzon If you are on recommended stocktwits list put tome tweets out between 2 mins to 4 and 10 after 4 to get on broadway $$3:41 PM Aug 25th from web
41. NYSE: 118-0 NH/NL diff, the strongest since 8/7/09 (130-0). NASDAQ was stronger as well at 75-3 $$8:45 PM Aug 24th from web
42. Learn to spot a climax top – example is $PLAT from 2/18/08 blog post http://bit.ly/7htvs. Charts talk so listen! $$8:39 PM Aug 23rd from web
43. $KNOT – $10.69, a rebound stock? I tracked it as a short in ’07 http://bit.ly/RudgZ and a buy in ’05 & ’06 http://bit.ly/ssb1w4:41 PM Aug 21st from web
44. Could you Trade Full Time? http://bit.ly/gFjmf Take this quick quiz and honestly determine if you are built to trade full time $$9:17 PM Aug 20th from web
45. “UPS & FedEx are doing just fine. It’s the Post Office that’s always having problems.”Barack Obama. And we want to privatize Health Care?10:16 PM Aug 19th from web
46. @wsProphet “Stick with shorting socks and don’t give these JO’s any more” True but a lot of people don’t want to short stocks $$11:56 AM Aug 19th from web in reply to wsProphet
47. The buy isn’t there yet but the inverse ETF’s can be a nice tool if the market drops, especially NASDAQ: $PSQ, $SH, $DOG, $QID11:39 AM Aug 19th from web
48. $GS – $160.48, has the same short term topping pattern as the NASDAQ on the weekly candlestick charts9:37 PM Aug 18th from web
49. @zaiteku However, the NASDAQ is weak. NH’s weak. Short term topping pattern & triple bottom breakdown. 200d is a nice support level $$9:21 PM Aug 18th from web in reply to zaiteku
50. @zaiteku I wouldn’t short $RST or $KIRK – just noting the weakness. I would look to buy them in the future if they hold major trend lines9:20 PM Aug 18th from web in reply to zaiteku
51. $KIRK – 11.29, closed below the 50-d ma for first time since up-trend started in March near $3 per share. Retail hit hard today.9:47 PM Aug 17th from web
52. $RST – 20.63, Rosetta Stone rocked today, down 27% on vol 2,000% larger than ave. 3rd qtr earnings cut.9:45 PM Aug 17th from web
53. NASDAQ: down 2.8% today. The 1st negative NH/NL diff in more than a month: 8-11, -3. 7/13/09 last time at 11-19. Dec lead Adv by 8-to-1 $$8:50 PM Aug 17th from web
54. 51% of NASDAQ stocks are above their 200-d ma, levels not seen since 2007. 60% hasn’t been reached since 2003/2004. $$9:46 PM Aug 16th from web
55. 74% of NYSE stocks are above their 200-d ma, levels not seen since the summer of 2007 (overbought) $$9:43 PM Aug 16th from web
56. Confusing market? “Keep cash if enough issues w/ such promise cannot be found or if the investment per issue becomes unwieldy” Loeb $$11:32 AM Aug 15th from web
57. “The critical test in managing investments is individual judgment – the ability to interpret information correctly.” -RS Love4:03 PM Aug 12th from web
58. “An investor can have the latest facts but if he does not have the ability to arrive at the correct conclusion, he is bound to have trouble”4:03 PM Aug 12th from web
59. $RAX – $15.88, up 10.20% on volume 252% larger than ave. 1st tweet 6/9/09 @ $12.20, up 30%. Said: “Momentum stock, add on low volume dips”9:16 PM Aug 11th from web
60. @howardlindzon Well, I wouldn’t have the platform without you (stocktwits)! Glad you & others enjoy. Hopefully someone is making money! $$10:01 AM Aug 11th from web in reply to howardlindzon
61. $HMIN – $26.34, up 35% in less than one week (tweet 8/4/09 at $19.57 – NH that post with double top breakout, vol +221%)9:07 PM Aug 10th from web
62. $IPCM – $31.05, up 5.22% on volume 52% above ave. Up 23% since tweet on 6/17/09 at $25.349:05 PM Aug 10th from web
63. $SD – $11.76, darling of my blog last spring, ’08. Triple top breakout above $12. Up on heavy volume http://bit.ly/hAbR59:03 PM Aug 10th from web
64. Do you want a good risk-to-reward ratio? 1,000+ followers, only 242 Tweets. Quality, not quantity! I don’t waste people’s time! Follow $$8:45 PM Aug 10th from web
65. NYSE NH’s drop below 100 threshold for first time in more than a week. $$8:31 PM Aug 10th from web
66. Agreed RT @FinanceTrends Loeb’s “Battle for Investment Survival” one of the best books I’ve read on speculation & investing @derekhernquist8:29 PM Aug 10th from web
67. RT @upsidetrader Thomas Jefferson, 1802: ‘I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties (cont) http://tl.gd/cbq41:13 PM Aug 10th from web
68. Fantastic article about NH’s on NYSE: Meisler: Why Common Stocks Are Absent from New Highs http://bit.ly/zMzAU $$10:04 PM Aug 9th from web
69. Interesting: Homebuilders & REIT’s close week up on above ave volume w/ more bad news (Half U.S. mortgages underwater by 2011) $$9:51 PM Aug 9th from web
70. “The factors that make an ideal investment are never all present at the same time” GM Loeb $$4:58 PM Aug 9th from web
71. “It always was and always will be the power to understand and the ability to act that turns information into profits” GM Loeb4:57 PM Aug 9th from web
72. “I do not think anyone really knows when a particular security is “cheap” or “dear”…” GM Loeb @howardlindzon, good quote for $AAPL4:56 PM Aug 9th from web
73. “Diversification is a necessity for the beginner. On the other hand, the really great fortunes were made by concentration.” GM Loeb4:54 PM Aug 9th from web
74. “When governments pay the bills, then they want to interfere with how that money is going to be spent.” – Ron Paul3:14 PM Aug 9th from web
75. RT @wsmco china cutting taxes to spur economy. liberals here raising taxes. wonder which will work better spurring investment/innov/jobs11:41 AM Aug 9th from web
76. RT very cool @timothysykes Check Out This Cool Map Of Worldwide Internet Users [Picture] http://bit.ly/eWvQl11:38 AM Aug 9th from web
77. NASDAQ: Two days of distribution (down on above average volume). Negative pattern on P&F chart. NH’s 1/3 of Monday’s total $$10:50 PM Aug 6th from web
78. NYSE: NH’s still 100+ but Adv-Dec is negative the past two days $$10:40 PM Aug 6th from web
79. “When everybody thinks alike, Everyone is likely to be wrong.” Humphrey Neill, factor behind economic booms & busts that blight civilization10:03 PM Aug 5th from web
80. Investors Intelligence Bulls jumped to 47.2% (not quite 50% yet – this level suggests a correction is due). $$9:33 PM Aug 5th from web
81. @rbanta Correct, both times showed us a correction (July 07 and May 08).9:31 PM Aug 5th from web in reply to rbanta
82. 6 of the top 10 stocks on IBD 100 are China based – total lack of US strength, especially common stocks (no where to be found) $$9:28 PM Aug 5th from web
83. NYSE NH’s last 5 days: 151, 158, 177, 110, 127, May 08 last time 5 days in a row. July 07 last time for 6+ consec days (17 total) $$7:53 PM Aug 5th from web
84. Happy to pass 1,000 followers – glad people enjoy what a have been writing the past few months.2:48 PM Aug 5th from web
85. REIT’s up on above ave volume: $AVB $SLG $BXP $BPO $SPG $VNO. REIT Index $RMZ has long tail up on P&F chart so look for base $$9:03 PM Aug 4th from web
86. $KIRK – $15.40, another new high – this one is on fire! 99 RS rating.8:36 PM Aug 4th from web
87. $EJ – $20.12, up 86% since 4/9/09 Tweet at $10.79 – My top performing stocktwits coverage (started on twitter 3/31/09)8:31 PM Aug 4th from web
88. $CXO – $34.86, up 5.51% on volume 119% larger than ave. Ascending triple top break-out on P&F chart8:28 PM Aug 4th from web
89. HMIN – $19.57, up 12.73% on volume 221% larger than ave. 92 RS rating & new 52-wk high. Double top break-out on P&F chart $$8:24 PM Aug 4th from web
90. Investor Intelligence Bulls: 42.2%, update due tomorrow (50%+ is extreme). AAII Sentiment: 48% $$8:17 PM Aug 4th from web
91. @TheKirkReport A lot of screens are empty or lacking these days – go figure. The market talking… $$3:50 PM Aug 4th from web in reply to TheKirkReport
92. NYSE: NH’s past three days: 177, 110, 127; NL’s: 4, 7, 7. May 2008 was the last time we had 3 100+ NH days. $$10:43 PM Aug 3rd from web
93. Must Read: New High New Low Data you can’t find anywhere else: http://bit.ly/pZYXj and if you can, show me where! $$1:23 PM Aug 3rd from web
94. RT @TheKirkReport Must read: Lessons from my dear friend Irwin T. Yamamoto… http://bit.ly/2V7eWsb1:22 PM Aug 3rd from web
95. All-Time Top 10 NASDAQ Daily New Highs: http://bit.ly/pZYXj What was the most new highs in one day, find out what year! $$8:56 AM Aug 3rd from web
96. Who can tell me the highest number of New Highs in one day for the NASDAQ, all time? All-time top 10 on my blog tomorrow. $$12:20 PM Aug 2nd from web
97. “The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing.” – Walt Disney – The RE market is calling my name.9:13 PM Aug 1st from web
98. RT @copyblogger Consultant: Someone you call in at the last minute to share the blame. – Sounds like my day to day career (some clients).9:44 AM Aug 1st from web
99. @jmadden76 elections are in 3 years and no one can prop a market that long. Just follow the market, don’t try to predict or assume.5:35 PM Jul 31st from web in reply to jmadden76
100. In 1938, the S&P 500 rallied 46% in 147 days before crashing 85%. So far, the S&P 500 has rallied 46% in 145 days (Roberto Pedone) $$3:59 PM Jul 31st from web
Cautiousness and skepticism are getting hammered. Looks like this wasn’t the best of calls.
Bohica,
It’s not a one day call. By the way, do your homework, the NASDAQ was up almost 2% today on volume 85% of the average. Not what I call strength, holiday or not. NYSE volume was only 70% of the average.
You’ll see, NASDAQ has a 10-12% drop coming soon enough. You want to see the market go up on above average volume.
We trade longer term here, not day trading.
Hi Chris please just do a weekly summary of your thoughts here.Tweeter has just way too much noise.
thank you
janable
Well, in earlier posts, you emphatically said you don’t try to predict the market. But now it looks as if you do. Just tryin’ to understand…
Hello tweeter is just to much noise. Could you please just do a weekly recap here.
Thanks
Janable
Hey Chris,
Really enjoy your blog. I looked for a way to contact you to see if you be willing to do a blog roll link exchange. I’ve been developing my CANSLIM strategies from scratch and have learned alot over here. Keep it up.
Ty
Bohica,
NASDAQ down over 3% on above average volume today…What were you saying again?
A fair riposte to be sure, Chris.
But what I was also saying is in a previous comment, you mentioned you don’t try to predict where the market is going to go. More recently, you predicted a decline of 12% or so. Is it possible to accurately predict the level, in addition to direction, of change in the market?
Bohica,
Fair point but I am not predicting the drop. There is a gap-up that must fill and it happens to be 12% below the recent high. I anticipate a drop based on a few things:
1. A gap to fill
2. Above ave volume when the market drops
3. Lower volume on advancing days
4. Leaders acting the same way as market
We must trade the future, what we see (not what has happened). I am not predicting. I have information coming in so I am basing decisions off of my market info. I may be wrong but that’s why we monitor risk and cut a loss if incorrect.
The market trades the future, not present day. All I know is that the “strength” is fake and a drop looks to be coming based on the current action.
We’ll see.
Chris, thank you for your thoughtful reply. My questions may understandably be interpreted as those of a naysayer. The simple fact is I’m not very good at interpreting this kind of information and I’m trying to better comprehend what you’re doing. Thanks again.
Chris, thank you for your clear reply. My questions may understandably be interpreted as those of a naysayer. The simple fact is I’m not very good at interpreting this kind of information and I’m trying to better comprehend what you’re doing. Thanks again.
Pretty impressive rally the past 2 days. Don’t see much in the way of divergence. Any thoughts?
Decent rally but the volume is still less than the final three days of last week, which were all down (NASDAQ). Typical moving average bounce.
Thanks for your thoughts!
What’s noteworthy about this rally is the lack of any glaring divergences as there have been just prior to substantial crashes in years’ past. Where are the marked divergences?
Bohica,
I see this: the NASDAQ is moving higher in this rally but it hasn’t made a new 52-week high. The volume this week is still lower than last week (down week). That’s what I see and that’s the reason I am not buying. The DOW is similar.
NH’s are going higher but leaders on above average volume are so/so.
I still see something wrong. I am not shorting this market but I am not buying here either (not at this time).
Market continues to be in an uptrend and there are plenty of stocks jumping out of nice consolidation. The Shanghai and Shenzhen continue to look great giving a boost to Chinese ADRs. Do not forget the Brazilian stocks.
Gap analysis is all well in good, but in this case that gap won’t be filled just yet.
AAPL and TXN blew out earnings, market really shouldn’t look back here.
MS,
Great earnings today. The rest of the week will tell the story. AAPL must close in new high territory without selling off – that will be the confirmation!
Can’t forget GOOG earnings, it hasn’t looked back either. CAT blew out earnings. Things aren’t that bad, but they aren’t great. However, many believe things are bad.
And with all the positive earnings news, and our recent rally up to new highs the market sells off 😉
gotta take it stock by stock
Hey Chris,
Concering GAP up and down situations, I was looking at the IBM daily chart today.
GAP UP on 7/17
GAP DN on 10/16
Is there any indication as to what will fill first? Does it appear that the GAP DN will close first before the GAP UP closes? Any rules on this one?
Thanks…
Steven Mac
DOW drops below 10,000 – not a good sign with all the good news prior to today!
Steven,
I don’t have a “historical data” answer for you.
Hello Chris. I am reading your blog, and i got idea about colaboration, but i dont found any link to your email. Please send message to my email ontos@inbox.lv and i send to you my message.
Looks like IBM GAP down was due to earnings and unethical practice news:
IBM SVP Bob Moffat arrested for Insider Trading
http://www.khurak.net/bob-moffat-insider-trading-003344/
V and MA on a tear