Keep Riding the IPOs

Don’t jump off a trend until it ends. I know, the cliché gets old but it always works!
Seriously, why would we want to fight the trend. If IPOs are working in 2007, join the party.

Some of you may ask: Isn’t it too late to join the party? Did I miss the boat?

All I can say is this:
Find an opportunity, setup the risk/reward and make the trade. Sell if it stops you out and hold on if it starts to take off. Understand what you want to accomplish with each position and know precisely how you will take profits on pullbacks, climax runs, etc…

With rules in place, your overall portfolio shouldn’t get hurt. Yoy may lose a few trades but your bottom line will only decrease by a few percent and you will know the answers to the questions above (the trend may be over). Don’t guess when a trend is over, allow the market to show you when it is over!

101107_rvbd_wkly.png

Strong IPOs trending Higher:

  • VMW – 107.04, the stock completed the $60-$100 run and is now above the triple digit threshold. I am looking for a base at or slightly above $100 for a new entry (to add shares). If it doesn’t base, I will ride my original position.
  • ATV – 23.28, an interesting stock that was up 23% on volume 158% larger than the daily average. The Point and Figure chart shows a triple top breakout buy signal on a move above $24
  • WX – 40.24, An excellent run over the past two months doubling investor’s money. I am looking for a short term base to form before attempting to grab shares. The pullback area for the next buy would be near $35.
  • EDU – 68.00, the stock is up almost 100% on the blog and is a personal holding. I did sell a portion of my position too early over the summer. They teach English to students and adults in China (talk about a money maker).
  • FCSX – 36.71, up 7% on volume 19% above the average as the stock is starting to gain momentum above the 50-d moving average. It looks like a good time to start accumulating shares (above the 50-d m.a.)
  • RVBD – 49.38, The stock is building an eleven week base with solid support near $37 (above the 200-d m.a.). Ideal entries should happen along the moving averages (50-d and 200-d) or a breakout to new all-time highs.
  • JCG – 45.88, the retailer is basing along the 200-d m.a. Now is the ideal buy for longer term trend traders. It’s a prime 200-d m.a. play (excellent risk/reward right now). However, it does need to overcome the 50-d m.a. to be successful!!!
  • JASO – 42.93, the stock has formed a perfect cup with handle base with a pivot point of $48.67. A spread triple top breakout buy exists on a move above $49.

101107_jcg_wkly.png

Others that make the list but are extended:
CMG, CPLA, SNCR, GTLS, CROX, FSLR

Comments

  1. Chris, great list! If you were to pick one of those stocks today, which would it be? JASO is getting a pop today.

  2. I own shares in several of them right now:
    VMW, EDU, GTLS, SNCR

    Yes, JASO (I owned but sold) is looking good today! Solar is still moving even though LDK took a hit last week.

    I would have no problem placing a 1% risk trade on JASO today.

  3. BTW, you are doing a great job with your blog MDJ!

  4. Thanks for the compliment Chris! Been a big fan of your site for a while now.

    Have you ever considered leaving your day job and trading full time?

  5. I have considered it but I am not a day trader; meaning short term intraday trades (that’s the big problem). I trade longer term trends and charts. I swing trade more often now than ever so maybe I am evolving into a possible full-time trading career. Time will tell. I am still in my 20’s (not for long) so I have plenty of time to make it happen.

  6. Great post Chris.
    I personally couldnt agree more on JASO. Will be an interesting one to watch. Solid looking base. And IPO´s at the moment seem to be on fire (STV in the first few days for example). Im currently placed in PRGN which has been working well so far.

    Keep the great blog going!
    Ben

  7. Ben,
    STV was one I was highlighting in my issues of IBD (upcoming IPOs section). Although I marked it several times, I didn’t take a position in STV.

    It will be interesting to see what happens as it is trading flat the past two days.

    JASO is up over 11% on huge volume but it hasn’t crossed the pivot point. I actually don’t like the gap-up in this area. But, the stong daily and weekly volume says BUY if it hits that new high! The P&F charts triggered the spread triple top breakout!

  8. Chris,

    “STV was one I was highlighting in my issues of IBD (upcoming IPOs section). ”

    is this IPO section only available to IBD subscribers?

    Thanks

  9. Chris,

    For the cup-with-handle, do you see this pattern on the daily chart (starting from Jul 15 – Sept 20 for cup and the handle from (Sept 21 – current?)

    or do you see this pattern in the weekly chart? Mid-july to Mid-Sept for cup and from that point to current as handle?

    I guess my question is – when looking for all these money making charts, do you tend to find them on the daily or weekly charts or both?

    Thanks!

  10. Dima,
    This section is for subscribers to the news paper. I use eIBD (the paper version is the same thing).

  11. Steven,
    I am using the weekly chart for the cup with handle. I located the pivot point by confirming on the daily chart. I always use the weekly charts for my trend trades. Just like the two charts displayed in this post.

Trackbacks

  1. […] list includes VMW. I clicked on the SmartLink and then clicked on SmartSearch and found some great analysis on the stock. Targeted and contextual, automatic and instant. […]

  2. […] VMware Completes First Run Don’t guess when a trend is over, allow the market to show you when it is over! […]

  3. […] handle scenario on the JA Solar Holdings (JASO) weekly chart on October 11, 2007 in a post titled Keep Riding the IPOs JASO – 42.93, the stock has formed a perfect cup with handle base with a pivot point of $48.67 […]

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